US gasoline prices may have declined a bit, but economic gloom among voters is not expected to lift before the November presidential election -- hindering Republican chances to hold on to the White House. Fresh data showing sharply higher inflation and the slowest start rate in home building in more than 17 years highlighted economic woes on Tuesday, and analysts said there is little doubt the accumulation of bad news bolsters voter appetite for a change in Washington. That gives Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama a big advantage over Republican John McCain, said Michael Walden, an economics professor at North Carolina State University. “To the extent that the economy gets worse, that will help Sen. Obama because people will view him as, in the well-worn phrase, the ‘agent of change,'” Walden said. A bad economy is never good for political incumbents. After seven years under Republican President George W. Bush, voters are glum about the state of the U.S. economy, weary of high prices, rising unemployment and a housing and credit crisis. “People are overwhelmingly saying that the economy is what matters in this election,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The economy is the single most important issue for 52 percent of likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac national poll released on Tuesday, far outnumbering the 16 percent who are most concerned about the war in Iraq. Among voters who list the economy as their top concern, 49 percent prefer Obama and 41 percent McCain, the poll showed. Among respondents overall, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. What happens next Still, some believe economic developments between now and November could determine the decision of wavering voters. “The one big question mark is what happens in next few months on the economy,” said Brian Darling, an economic and political analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation. “If banks fail, if the housing crisis gets worse, it's conventional wisdom that that would be helpful to Obama. Republicans will be blamed for any disruption in the economy, rightfully or wrongfully,” Darling said. The faltering economy had been expected to be a weakness for McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise. But McCain has worked hard to disassociate himself from the perception that Bush has been a poor economic manager, and Obama has struggled to cross the 50 percent threshold of likely voters -- something conservatives argue bodes well for McCain. While Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, has electrified some voters and political commentators at home and abroad, analysts and pollsters alike say the election will likely be close. “You look at poll numbers and McCain is hanging tough under very difficult economic circumstances,” said Darling. “So conventional wisdom may not hold true.” Among independent voters, Obama and McCain were tied on the economy, a Reuters/Zogby poll showed in July. McCain has portrayed Obama, an Illinois senator, as a proponent of higher taxes, while Obama has tried to link McCain with Bush's unpopular economic policies. McCain backs an extension of Bush's tax cuts, which are geared toward higher wage earners. Obama supports tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners and calls for higher taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year. Still, analysts say ordinary voters may well cast their votes based on their pocketbook – and their fear for the economy – rather than any specific policy. “The trend is set now. People understand the economy has been weak under Bush, at least in his second term, so that certainly hurts Sen. McCain as the Republican nominee and gives Sen. Obama a significant edge because he can argue that we can't continue (this path),” said Alexander Lamis, a political science professor at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio, Walden said lower gasoline prices may help McCain if voters feel better about their household budget and less desperate for the change Obama represents. But he predicts news on the job front will only worsen between now and November. “I think gas prices will trend down to election day and beyond, and that will be a positive in the psychology of voters. But it's not going to outweigh the negatives of the job market,” Walden said. “I don't think the average person feels the worst is over by any stretch of the imagination.” - Reuters __
