NOBODY expects an imminent collapse of the Basher Al-Assad regime in Syria just because Russia, after burying its head in the sand for long, has acknowledged some ground realities in that Arab country. After all, Syria has been under political convulsions and in civil war-like situation for the last 21 months and all obituaries of the Assad regime have proved premature. Still Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov's statement on Thursday clarifying that his government “cannot rule out” the possibility of the Syrian rebels dislodging Assad and capturing power is very significant. This should not be dismissed as a statement that Russia made, most probably for public consumption, after the massacre in the village of Told in the Howl region in May this year. No, Thursday's statement should be taken seriously as an indication that Moscow, by far the most important of Damascus' outside supporters, will not allow its credibility to be lost by sticking to a regime that has no chance of survival. This also means that Russia may help facilitate the regime change provided the international community avoids a Libya-like situation in Syria and Moscow has a role in shaping the post-Assad outcome. As it is, the Assad regime is under a siege. Its military hold is slipping. Regional situation has always been against Assad. International situation is becoming more and more unfavorable if the latest Russian statement is anything to go by. No surprise, the rebels are showing signs of a new confidence. The Free Syrian Army as well as other groups have overrun a succession of army bases and military schools. The rebels now control much of rural Syria. Assad has ringed the capital Damascus with a 80,000-strong force. The rebels are closing in on the capital city, where there has been fierce fighting in the southern suburbs. Right now, the Syrian Air Force may dominate the sky but relentless bombing will only drive even the supporters of the regime into the arms of the rebels. President Barack Obama's announcement on Tuesday that the US would formally recognize the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as that country's legitimate representative may be another decisive turning point. The die is cast. But the final unraveling could be prolonged and bloody. Years of Baath rule have ruined Syria. A cornered Assad and his cohorts may drag the country into a bloodbath. There has to be consensus at regional and international levels about the shape of a new government if jockeying for power and further fighting is to be avoided. What happened in Yemen, Libya, Somalia and northern Mali should serve as a warning. No major power, regional or global, should be excluded from discussions about the post-Assad situation. And no rebel group should be denied representation in any talks or negotiations aimed at the formation of a broad-based government. In Libya the rifts were tribal, and in Syria the divisions are on sectarian lines. Western media's focus on this aspect of the conflict has only inflamed passions on both sides. So there are chances of sectarian animosities coming into play if the collapse of the regime is followed by a period of instability and uncertainty. This should be avoided. The last thing the Middle East needs is a second Iraq.
