JEDDAH – Global rice trade is expected to surpass 38 million tons in 2012 after an unprecedented 36 million last year, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture, said in its “Grain: World Markets and Trade” report released this month. Previously, trade had averaged around 30 million tons. Behind the record volumes, though, is a story of policy changes and production issues that are driving major fluctuations in suppliers. The most dramatic shift is between India and Thailand. A 4-year ban on non-basmati rice exports left India with massive stocks that are now pouring out in quantities expected to make that country the number one exporter for the first time, topping its 2002 record by 50 percent. While India releases stocks, the Thai government is accumulating them by purchasing domestic supplies at above market prices, making exports uncompetitive. After 30 years as the world's largest rice exporter, Thailand is expected to fall to number three, shipping the smallest amount in 14 years. Meanwhile, Vietnam is exporting at levels not previously thought possible because of record crops and a porous border with Cambodia. Together, these three countries supply 60 percent of the world's rice trade. Other exporters can also be erratic. For example, policies in Brazil and Egypt and weather in Burma and Australia have caused major fluctuations in the past several years. These shifts in suppliers are likely to continue as policies and weather are major drivers of the rice market. The report further said that global rice production in 2012/13 is forecast to be nearly on par with the previous year, while consumption rises slightly and stocks remain the second highest in a decade. Trade is forecast down from the previous year's record but at comparable levels to 2 years before. US production is up, and exports are also up marginally. The gap between US and Indian export quotes widened $10 in the past month to $175, a major increase since February when the spread was only $60. Top exporter India continues to sell its massive stocks while the United States faces a relatively small rice crop and near record prices for other grains. Quotes from Thailand and South America join the United States to form the higher-priced tier, while Vietnamese and Pakistani quotes are closer to India. Meanwhile, global wheat production for 2012/13 is reduced due to a lower projected crop in Australia. Global trade is boosted primarily on higher demand from the EU and Egypt as a result of greater available exportable supplies in the Black Sea. US exports are reduced on account of greater competition from the Black Sea and India. The season-average US farm price is unchanged. Wheat prices were generally flat with the exception of Hard Red Winter (HRW), which rose $11 to $378/ton. Dry conditions in HRW producing areas are supporting prices. The spread between HRW and Hard Red Spring (HRS) has narrowed significantly and is currently only $6/ton, the tightest since 2007/08. Soft Red Winter (SRW) and HRS went up slightly by $4 to $345/ton and $2 to $384/ton, respectively. Soft White Winter (SWW) was down $1 to $339/ton. Meanwhile, global trade in coarse grains is raised 3.2 million tons because of higher corn and barley demand. Global corn trade is boosted nearly 2.5 million tons for the second consecutive month on higher imports by the EU, the United States, South Korea, and Mexico. US corn production is up slightly while exports are unchanged. Despite slow sales and shipments, there are indications of improving US competitiveness with South America and Ukraine. The season average farm price is projected lower from last month on weak early-season prices although it remains a record. – SG
