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OPEC output rises, offsets Iran decline
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 01 - 11 - 2012

LONDON – OPEC oil output has risen slightly in October as extra supplies from Iraq, Angola and Libya offset a further decline in Iran to its lowest in two decades and disruptions in Nigeria, a Reuters survey found Wednesday.
Global oil prices rose Wednesday as volumes picked up after the reopening of the New York Mercantile Exchange trading floor for the first time this week in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.
New York's benchmark oil futures contract, West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude for delivery in December, gained 48 cents to $86.16 a barrel.
Brent North Sea crude for December climbed 10 cents to $109.18 a barrel in London early afternoon trading.
The Reuters survey indicates Iraq's expansion in export capacity and continued high output from top exporter Saudi Arabia are helping to compensate for reduced supply from Iran.
Supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 31.15 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 31.09 million bpd in September, the survey of sources at oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts found.
Iranian output is unlikely to post further large declines for now, one analyst said, although more buyers could scale back purchases in 2013.
“We see relative stability through the fourth quarter at current levels,” said analyst Sam Ciszuk of KBC Energy Economics. “But as US-given sanction exceptions expire around new year, we're expecting some further cuts to purchases from Iran's main remaining buyers, possibly save China.”
September's OPEC total was the lowest since January 2012, when the group pumped 30.95 million bpd, according to Reuters surveys. Still, production remains just over 1 million bpd more than OPEC's output target of 30 million bpd.
The biggest increase came from Iraq, which has overtaken Iran to become OPEC's second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, even though bad weather slowed exports from the country's south in the second half of October.
Weather permitting, a further increase from Iraq is possible in November. Loading schedules signal both higher shipments of Kirkuk crude from northern Iraq, and record-high exports of Basra crude in the south.
“Exports are good,” said a source with a company that buys Iraq's crude, referring to Kirkuk shipments. “There are some two to three days' delays, but that's it.”
Smaller increases came from Libya, as its oil industry recovers from a shutdown during the 2011 civil war, and from Angola, where exports have edged up from September's rate which was the lowest since July 2011.
Oil prices gave up most an earlier gain on Wednesday to trade around $109 a barrel. Crude has fallen from a peak for the year of $128 in March.
Iran and Nigeria posted declines in output this month, according to the survey.
Iranian supply fell by 30,000 bpd to 2.67 million bpd, the survey found. That would be its lowest since 1988, according to figures from the US Energy Information Administration.
Disruptions to supply in Nigeria limited the increase in OPEC supply this month. Nigerian exports were scheduled to rise in October, but supply declined because of flooding and damage to pipelines caused by oil theft.
Royal Dutch Shell's Nigerian venture on October 19 declared force majeure on exports of Bonny and Forcados crudes, citing damage caused by oil theft. Total stopped some onshore production due to flooding.
Saudi Arabia pumped almost 10 million bpd in October, near the highest rate in decades, the survey found. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said on Oct. 9 that the KIngdom was satisfied prices had fallen to a level that does not hamper global growth.
There was no sign of any substantial reduction in supply from Gulf states. – Reuters


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