JEDDAH – Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 has been revised down by 0.1 mb, reflecting the upward revision to non-OPEC supply as global demand remains unchanged, OPEC said in its “Monthly Oil Market Report” for August 2012. 1Q13 and 2Q13 see downward adjustments of 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively, while 3Q13 and 4Q13 remains unchanged. The required OPEC crude is forecast to average 29.5 mb/d, which is 0.4 mb/d lower than in 2012. 1Q13 is estimated to increase by 0.1 mb/d versus the same quarter last year, while the other quarters are expected to see negative growth, with the bulk of the decrease coming from 2Q13, falling by 0.5 mb/d. 3Q13 and 4Q13 are forecast to drop by 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d respectively. Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 is projected to average 29.9 mb/d, about 80,000 b/d lower than last month's estimate, due mainly to an upward revision to non-OPEC supply, since demand has remained unchanged. Within the quarters, 1Q12 remains unchanged. 2Q12 sees an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d, while 3Q12 and 4Q12 have been revised down by 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d respectively. Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 shows a decrease of 0.1 mb/d from last year. 1Q12 is estimated to decline by 0.6 mb/d versus the same quarter last year; 2Q12 and 3Q12 are projected to increase by 0.2 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d respectively, while 4Q12 is forecast to decline by 0.2 mb/d. Moreover, the report said despite the similarity in world GDP between this year and next year, global oil demand growth is estimated to be almost 0.1 mb/d lower compared to 2012. The economic picture is vague and the horizon full of turbulence. World oil demand is forecast to continue its growth during 2013 to reach 0.8 mb/d y-o-y and average 89.5 mb/d. There is much uncertainty surrounding the world's oil-use estimate in 2013. Next year's oil demand forecast is based on assumptions, such as higher GDP, the same level of retail petroleum prices as this year and uncertainty in the total world economy during the year. The downward risk potential has greater probability in the forecast than the upward risk one. Therefore, the gloomy picture could reduce the world oil demand growth forecast by 20 percent next year. Furthermore, US oil demand, which is the main player in next year's world oil demand, can change the rhythm of the oil demand pattern. This, of course, would be dependent on the health of the economy and international oil prices. For 2013, US auto sales are expected to slow down to growth of approximately 3 percent, reflecting lower expectations in the US and European economies. Canadian vehicle sales are projected to increase by only a slight 1 percent, as a result of rather pessimistic market sentiment. As a result of gloomy expectations about the development of the economy, 2013 is forecast to be another declining year for the European car industry at approximately the same level as in 2012. Demand for new cars in Japan is expected to grow again strongly, however at to a lesser degree than this year's 8 percent y-o-y. The outlook for the South Korean market is largely dependent upon developments in the US and Euro-zone economies, while Chinese domestic auto sales are forecast to show an increase of around 11 percent. Total OECD oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.68 mb/d in 2012 to average 20.86 mb/d, constituting an upward revision of 75 tb/d from the previous month. The supply forecasts for the US, Canada, Norway and Australia were revised up, while that for the UK was adjusted down. North America remains the only region within the OECD with expected supply growth in 2012, while supply from OECD Western Europe and the Pacific is expected to decline. On a quarterly basis, OECD oil supply is seen to average 21.07 mb/d, 20.86 mb/d, 20.60 mb/d and 20.90 mb/d respectively. – SG
