RIYADH – Saudi Arabia's budget surplus could rocket by nearly 28 times in 2012 as revenue will likely be far higher than the level projected by the world's largest oil exporter, Jadwa Investments said in a new study. The Kingdom projected a budget surplus of SR12 billion when it announced its highest ever expenditure of SR690 billion for 2012 and forecast revenue at SR702 billion. In a study, Jadwa expected the actual surplus to swell to nearly SR306 billion, the second highest since the record balance of SR581 billion in 2008. It projected revenue would surge to SR1.094 trillion and expected the government to again overshoot budgeted spending to SR757 billion. Jadwa expected the price of Saudi crude to average around $100 in 2012, more than 50 percent above the $60 price assumed by Riyadh. The price of oil is rising after US crude inventories shrank more than expected for a fourth consecutive week. Benchmark oil rose 31 cents to $97.15 per barrel Wednesday in New York. Brent crude fell 5 cents to $114.59 per barrel in London. The US government said crude inventories totaled 360.7 million barrels last week, down 5.4 million barrels from the previous week. That's more than twice as much as the 2 million barrel decline predicted by analysts. The decline isn't necessarily because of an uptick in demand. Refineries are slowing production as they switch to winter fuel blends. And imports are lower. At the pump, the national average for gasoline fell overnight to $3.716 per gallon (3.7 liters). That's about a quarter more than a month ago. Saudi Arabia's oil output is also expected to grow to an average 9.6 million barrels per day this year from 9.3 bpd in 2011, Jadwa further said. Strong oil prices and higher production will also boost Saudi Arabia's foreign assets to an all time high of around $758 billion at the end of 2012 from nearly $634 billion at the end of 2011, the report said. Jadwa maintained its previous forecasts for Saudi Arabia's real GDP growth at 5.3 percent this year but expected growth to fall back to 3.5 percent in 2013. A breakdown showed the government sector would grow by 6.7 pent while growth is forecast at around 5.1 percent in the oil sector and 4.9 per cent in the non-hydrocarbon private sector. GDP in current prices will likely rise by around 3.8 percent to SR2.24 trillion in 2012 from SR2.16 trillion in 2011. Growth this year will be sharply below that in 2011, when nominal GDP shot up by 28 percent. Saudi oil production rose to 10.103 million barrels a day in June, from 9.807 million barrels a day in May, overtaking Russia as the world's largest producer, official data showed. Russia's output in June rose to 9.931 million barrels a day, from 9.896 million barrels a day in May, according to figures posted on the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI) website. JODI is supervised by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum and shows data supplied directly by governments dating back to 2002. In March, Saudi Arabia topped Russia's output for the first time in six years. Saudi Arabia burnt 778,000 barrels a day in power stations and water-desalination plants in June, up 26 percent from the 616,000 barrels a day used during the same period in 2011, and 39 percent higher than May. – SG/Agencies
