IF Turkey's constitutional court comes to a decision that the ruling AKP party must be disbanded for undermining the secular order of Turkey, the repercussions could be far-reaching and plunge not only Turkey but much of the Middle East into crisis. Prosecutors filed the case based primarily on the party's work to successfully overturn a ban on female headscarves at universities, which was ultimately blocked from taking effect on the grounds that it violated legislated secularism. The AKP has its roots in extremism but the party has officially left those days behind, establishing itself as pro-EU, business-friendly and avoiding confrontation with hardcore secularists. If the courts affirm the prosecutors' accusations, there are three possible outcomes. First, the court could simply reject the charges and throw out the case. Second, it could shut down the AKP, which polls show is the country's most popular party, and impose politcal bans on prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his colleagues. Or it could clip membership talks with the European Union completely or partially cut treasury aid to the party. If the party is banned, its representatives in parliament will likely regroup under a different name and Erdogan could reenter parliament as an independent. Banning the AKP, clearly, would throw the country into political chaos in addition to affecting membership talks with the EU as well as hitting the economy at a time of world financial jitters and rising energy prices. The decision could also reverberate across the region. Although critics have accused the AKP of harboring a secret agenda that is slowly becoming apparent as it consolidates its political hold on the government, it is a party which came to power by peaceful, democratic means and has governed reasonably and largely non-confrontationally. Imposing a sweeping ban on the party, especially given its wide popular support in Turkey, would send a negative message to similar-minded activists in other countries. Coupled with the recent bombings in Istanbul, banning the AKP could trigger political tensions in Turkey that might see it revert to its well-known patterns of the past 50 years. __
