LONDON — Iran and the United States might be talking up their readiness for war in the Gulf but beneath the rhetoric, all sides appear keen to avoid conflict and prevent accidental escalation — at least for now. This week, a string of hawkish Iranian statements — including a renewed threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and destroy US bases “within minutes” of an attack — helped push benchmark Brent crude oil prices above $100 for the first time since June. Western military officials and analysts say Tehran does have the capability to wreak regional havoc. But the current saber-rattling, they believe, is more about moving markets and trying to give the West second thoughts over the ever-tightening oil sanctions aimed at cutting back Tehran's nuclear program. Last week, US Chief of Naval Operations Jonathan Greenert told a news briefing that the Iranian navy continued to be “professional and courteous”. Confrontations with Revolutionary Guard naval units — in which they came too close to US warships for comfort — were also down in number, he said. Despite occasional talk of Iran refusing to allow US carriers through Hormuz, US naval officers say that in fact Iranian units appear to have had instructions to steer well clear when the giant ships transit the strait. When foreign warplanes approach Iranian air space, they find themselves swiftly warned off with a simple but firm radio warning in English. For its part, the US Navy says it has rescued dozens of Iranian sailors from Gulf and Indian Ocean waters, including several from a dhow held captive by Somali pirates. “I have never worked harder to prevent a conflict,” said Vice Admiral Fox, formerly commander of US naval forces in the region. “We are going out of our way to send the message that we are not there to over-pressurize (the situation).” The current increase in forces in the Gulf, naval insiders say, was planned months ago — but tough choices lie ahead. Washington says it plans to keep two carriers in the region for at least the next fiscal year and will shortly decide on the next. Maintaining those forces in the longer run, particularly given the planned US “pivot” to Asia, may be harder to sustain. But the focus on Hormuz, some suggest, may simply be missing the bigger picture. “Yes, we're seeing another spike in saber-rattling from Iran and to a lesser extent from the United States,” said Henry Smith, regional analyst at London-based consultancy Control Risks. “But neither of those countries has any intention of starting a war in the Gulf. The country you need to watch as the protagonist is Israel.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has long said it reserves the right to strike directly at Iran if it does not believe US and others are doing enough — through diplomacy or sanctions — to stop it going nuclear. — Reuters
