It is not for want of peace plans and mediation efforts by Arabs and world powers that Syria continues to boil, taking a heavy toll of human lives and posing a grave threat to regional stability. There have been several efforts and all have failed mainly due to three factors. First, President Bashar Assad thinks he can suppress the uprising against his regime militarily. He has repeatedly reneged on commitments to stop military attacks on his opponents, release political prisoners and engage in political dialogue. Second, all major peace initiatives have failed to recognize that Assad and his Baathist party are no longer a part of the solution. Third, Russia and China continue to support the murderous regime in Damascus. Even after the Houla massacre, in which more than 100 people including dozens of children were killed, Russia's deputy foreign minister said it was premature for the Security Council to consider “any new measures" against Damascus. As a result, the natural tendency would be to dismiss today's Geneva conference as yet another attempt to convince us that the world community was alive to the situation in that Arab country. A plan formulated by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan for negotiations between the government and the opposition that can be presented as a “Syrian-led political process" will be one of the main topics at the conference. Russia and China, which have vetoed punitive action against Assad at the UN and shunned the Friends of Syria grouping on the grounds that it is working against Assad, are attending the conference. This leaves some room for optimism. More important, the wording of the latest Annan plan appears to imply — without saying so directly — that Assad would have to relinquish his grip on the presidency. All along, the Syrian opposition groups have warned that Assad would have to step down and leave the country before they would negotiate future political arrangements. The Syrian National Council, the most coherent anti-Assad grouping, wants the unconditional departure of the president, his family and close allies. Adding to the sense of optimism are newspaper reports of a dramatic, last-ditch effort to cut a deal between the US and Russia that eases Assad from office and replaces him with an inclusive, transitional government while guaranteeing Russia's interests in Syria. Russia needs assurances against a costly American military intervention in yet another Arab country. The US should also address China's concerns about the West using human rights to further its geopolitical interests. At the same time Russia and other backers of Assad should realize that their actions and policies will only force US President Barack Obama to do something drastic and dramatic. Meanwhile, violence in Syria has steadily escalated ever since the uprising began some 15 months ago with an average of 100 deaths being recorded every day this month according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. More ominous still, Turkey reinforced its border with Syria with additional troops and antiaircraft weapons Thursday, adding to the concern that the violence could spark a wider regional conflict. Let us hope the Geneva deliberations will defuse the situation and prevent a chaotic implosion in Syria and a war in the Middle East.
