BY HASSAN TAHSIN Egypt's election commission announced that the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Mursi will face Hosni Mubarak-era prime minister and former military officer Ahmed Shafiq, in next month's presidential runoff. The announcement marked the official start of the second phase of a race in which Egyptian voters will face a stark choice in determining the successor to former president Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted last year. In the first phase, Mursi won 5,764,952 votes while Shafiq got 5,505,327 votes. The difference between the two rivals was only 259,625 votes. Subsequently posters appeared on the Egyptian street saying: “Oh people, Mursi is in front of you and Shafiq behind you - where is the refuge?” This unexpected result has resulted in utter confusion for the Egyptian people. Mursi is formally a candidate of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP -the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood). He was fielded unexpectedly after FJP's candidate Khairat El-Shater was excluded from the race and a former candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh was expelled from the party's membership. Last year, the Brotherhood decided that it would neither put forward a candidate nor support any candidate by itself. But its Supreme Guidance Bureau later backtracked from this position and decided this year to field a candidate. The second candidate Shafiq, dubbed “the strong man”, entered the fray as an independent, but truly, he is the candidate of the military organization. He was very close to Hosni Mubarak. There were no other close friends of Mubarak except Shafiq during the last days of his rule. Most of his close aides betrayed him. Before analyzing this situation, we have to examine what happened to three other candidates who did well in the public opinion polls. They were former Foreign Minister and Secretary General of the Arab League Amr Moussa, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who is a well-known pediatrician specialized in international relief work and a former member of the Brotherhood, and Hamdeen Sabahi, who secured his doctorate degree in engineering from an American university and is the leader of the Nasserist Dignity Party. In the opinion polls, their popularity and star value rose amazingly and television channels aired live shows with them, and even conducted debates between Amr Moussa and Aboul Fotouh. However, that was the beginning of the decline of their popularity. When Amr Moussa disclosed that he would not object to a FJP prime minister, he immediately lost the votes of some Copts, liberals and independents. As for Aboul Fotouh, he was cheated by the Salafis, Sufis and some followers of the Brotherhood. Hamdeen Sabahi was run out of the race because of his communist background, which was rejected by the overwhelming majority of the Egyptian people, in addition to his affiliation to the Nasserist Dignity Party. Despite all this, he was able to win as many as four million votes, demonstrating that he was a favorite of the revolution's youths. In this way, the Egyptian street was divided into four parts with strong differences. The first group is made up of those who are maintaining their silence. They represent more than 50 percent of eligible voters. This is decisive evidence that this majority is rejecting all the candidates. They have not found a presidential candidate who meets their expectations and realizes their ambitions, and therefore they have become an agitated force. The second group does not belong to either the Brotherhood or any military organization. There are liberals and revolutionaries among them. They believe that none of the candidates are entitled to be elected to the presidency. As for the third group, it is made up of religious groups with various affiliations. It is a strong force that cannot be ignored. Even though this group is the most organized bloc, it is rejected by the majority of people because of its hardcore views. The fourth group is made up of military personnel and members of the Nationalist Party. Some of them believe that stability can be restored only with a regime similar to that of the former Mubarak regime. They are running the battle from behind the curtain. Those involved in the January 25 Revolution do not like them. Where is the solution when differences are so stark? What would happen if the Constitutional Court issued a verdict disqualifying Shafiq from contesting the election and he was forced out of the contest? What would be the reaction of the army? If the runoff is held in a fair and transparent manner, will the Egyptian people respect the verdict? If they do not, what will happen then? If Mursi wins the election, then Egypt would be ruled by the Brotherhood's Supreme Guidance Council in the pattern of Iranian rule (clergy rule). Then, the president would be confronted with three files (tourism, banks and education) from his first day in office. This could be a nuclear time bomb that might explode at any time. Those who invested billions in the tourism sector would never agree to any religious intervention in this industry. They will try to defend it forcefully by the power of their wealth either publicly or by carrying out assassinations. This could lead to the risk of civil war, and that is what is Israel and the United States want to happen. If Ahmed Shafiq wins the election, then all of those who took part in or contributed to the January 25 Revolution would realize that the revolution had failed. In such a scenario, the new president would suppress the violence directed against him as well as his former regime, in addition to the country's economic interests. He would start by driving out the religious forces which came to prominence in the parliamentary elections. Thus, Egypt would be returned to its previous history at the beginning of the rule of military coup leaders in 1952. Some people may say that this is a pessimistic point of view, but I would like to point out that when the election commission announced the runoff results on May 27, many Egyptians could no longer remain patient. On the evening of the same day, Tahrir Square witnessed demonstrations by hundreds of people who protested the commission's decision to allow Shafiq to take part in the election. Protest marches were also held in other parts of the country, including Alexandria and Suez. Apart from this, a mob set fire to Shafiq's campaign headquarters. Now, Egypt is in a position that no one would envy. Is there a solution that would be satisfactory to all Egyptians? May Allah bless Egypt! – Hassan Tahsin is an Egyptian writer and political analyst. He can be reached at htahsin
