Amid high oil prices and the improving global economy, more emphasis is now given on refinery capacity expansion and clean fuels production. An industry report said new capacity will come on stream in Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa. The Global Refining Outlook-Challenges & Developments report by Hart Energy Consulting report noted that worldwide demand for energy will increase significantly during the next 15 years driven by population growth and the transition of emerging markets into the global economy. In developing nations, a smaller increment in GDP per capita yields a higher increment in energy consumption compared to developed countries. The global change in demand, product quality and refinery utilization will result in a shift in product trade patterns between the regions. Global refining margins will be soft as the wave of refinery projects is completed. Subsequent refined product growth and implementation of product quality standards will likely reverse this trend by 2020. Crude oil producers, refiners and vehicle producers will benefit from working closer together to develop low carbon fuels. However, cleaner hydrocarbons remains the most efficient feedstock in transport sector, with 80 percent+ of primary energy to be provided by fossil fuel for many decades to come.The report further noted that traditional emissions must still be controlled and continued shift to clean, low sulfur gasoline and distillate is required. Nonetheless, the is a growing shift toward new battery technology, electric & plug in vehicles. The report noticed major growth in biofuels experience, but small role in total pool. Global refining and automotive industries have the CO2 challenge in common, it added. Demand of ultra low sulfur gasoline will continue to grow. By 2020, half of world demand will consist of gasoline with less than 10 ppm of sulfur. Supply will be short for gasoline with less than 50 ppm and long on higher sulfur. Increased crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) supplies will increase by 16 million bpd. Other sources (biofuels and GTL) will provide an incremental supply of 3 million bpd OPEC will account for 57 percent of net crude supply. CIS, Brazil and Canada the rest. Global crude quality will remain constant but regional differences will be accentuated. World wide demand will increase significantly during the next 20 years driven by population growth and the transition of emerging markets into the global economy. In developing nations, a smaller increment in GDP per capita yields a higher increment in energy consumption compared to developed countries. Different regions will have different challenges and development with majority of growth coming from China. Developing regions, Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa, with expanding populations and economies will experience 2.5 percent annual growth. Industrialized nations will have almost no growth (0.1 percent annual growth) because of low population growth, higher prices and new conservation policies. The focus will be on rebalancing demand (more diesel) and rationalizing capacity. Global oil prices rose modestly Friday as traders welcomed upbeat news on the US jobs front but kept a cautious eye on signs of softer global demand. New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for delivery in April, closed at $107.40 a barrel, a gain of 82 cents from Thursday.
