The cars on the world's roads in 2040 will be a very different mix than what we have today. To a large extent, these changes will be driven by government policies that will mandate the fuel economy of personal vehicles, ExxonMobil said in its study on energy outlook to 2040. Conventional gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles will become much more efficient over the coming decades. However, these gains will not be enough on their own to meet government targets. As a result, conventional vehicles, which today are about 98 percent of the global fleet, will drop to about 50 percent of the fleet and only 35 percent of new-car sales by 2040, the report said. On the other hand, ExxonMobil expects that by 2040, hybrids and other advanced vehicles will account for nearly 50 percent of light duty vehicles on the road, compared to only about 1 percent today.The vast majority will be hybrids that use mainly gasoline plus a small amount of battery power; these will make up more than 40 percent of the global fleet by 2040. Globally, ExxonMobil expects to see growth in plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, along with compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) powered vehicles. However, these will account for only about 5 percent of the global fleet in 2040, their growth limited by cost and functionality considerations. Additionally, to achieve proposed fuel-economy targets, personal vehicles will need to be smaller and lighter than they are today. Vehicle downsizing could account for more than one-third of total projected fuel economy improvements through 2040. Globally, ExxonMobil expects the average new car to get 48 miles per gallon (MPG) in 2040, compared to 27 MPG in 2010. The report further said that when consumers set out to buy a new vehicle, cost and functionality are top concerns. Buyers consider not only purchase cost, but also the cost of fuel for the vehicle over its lifetime. So while making cars and other light duty vehicles more efficient - and reducing vehicle emissions - is a shared global goal, consumers generally will choose vehicles that meet that goal at the lowest cost to them. Through 2040, ExxonMobil sees most consumers gravitating to three options. Technologies that make conventional vehicles more efficient. Because it is relatively inexpensive to improve the efficiency of today's vehicles, this is the only option in which consumers' fuel savings over the first five years of ownership equal or exceed their added costs. Technologies such as turbocharging, higher-speed automatic transmissions, improved aerodynamics and reduced weight can improve fuel economy and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 30 percent. "We expect automakers will make increased use of these technologies as they seek to meet government fuel-efficiency mandates," the report noted. Of all advanced-vehicle technologies, hybrids will offer by far the best value for consumers, ExxonMobil predicted. By 2030, ExxonMobil expects that, on average, hybrid vehicles (like the Toyota Prius) will cost about $1,500 more than a similar-sized conventional vehicle, whereas a compressed-natural-gas (CNG) vehicle will be nearly $4,000 more, and an electric vehicle (like Nissan's Leaf) will be $12,000 more. In the case of the electric vehicle, consumers would not recoup that higher purchase cost within five years unless gasoline prices were more than $10 a gallon; with gasoline at $4 a gallon, it would take more than 15 years to recoup those upfront purchase costs. Additionally, the CO2 emissions of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles vary significantly based on the fuel source used to generate their electricity. Whether they drive conventional or advanced vehicles, consumers can improve fuel economy - up to 35 percent - by switching to smaller, lighter vehicles. These economics of consumer decisions will change as the prices of various fuels – gasoline, diesel, natural gas, electricity – rise and fall. Consumers also must consider other factors, such as driving range. Because gasoline and diesel are "energy dense," they contain more energy per fill-up than ethanol, CNG or electric vehicle batteries; this enhances consumer convenience by reducing the need for refueling stops. Ultimately, the choices made by consumers will determine how the global vehicle fleet and related energy demand evolve in the coming decades.
