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Bickering over Brexit
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 02 - 05 - 2017

THIS weekend 27 EU member states decided on how to deal with the departure of the British. The next 23 months will see a series of negotiations which will disengage the UK from the European Union following the triumph of the Brexiteers in last summer's in/out referendum.
There is a general consensus that the talks which will unwind 44 years of links between London and Brussels will be tough. The lines for the opening battle have already been drawn because the British want to negotiate a trade deal with the EU at the same time that talks take place over Brexit. The European Commission led by former Luxembourg-premier Jean-Claude Juncker insists that the departure deal must be concluded first before any trade talks are held. This was the view adopted by the EU27 on Saturday.
For Theresa May's government in London Brexit means not just quitting the European Union politically but also economically and this includes the single market. London must therefore negotiate new trading arrangements. But German chancellor Angel Merkel has warned that the British will not be able to "cherry-pick" arrangements that still suit it.
May announced when she succeeded David Cameron after his failed gamble that the voters would back continued EU members that "Brexit means Brexit". The rest of the EU appears no less absolute. "Leave means leave". The clear concern among EU27 leaders is that if the trade and Brexit negotiations run in parallel, the British will seek to leverage a demand on one with a concession on the other. It would be a messy and difficult process from which London might extract wins which Brussels is determined it shall not have.
There are those at the top in the EU who, despite their denials, clearly wish to punish the British for their betrayal of the idea of European political as well as economic union. They are equally convinced that unless the UK is seen to suffer, other EU states may be encouraged to leave or at least seek special treatment in order to stay. Poland and Hungary are already signed-up members of the EU's awkward squad. Anti-establishment parties in other states, not least France and Italy, have powerful parties which reject continued EU involvement. Even French presidential front-runner and EU-enthusiast Emmanuel Macron has pledged to drive through reforms in Brussels. How seriously he means that and indeed, how seriously French voters take his promises will become clear this Sunday.
It was the EU's refusal to reform its corrupt and chaotic budget, its rejection of the idea that some sovereign powers should be returned to member states and its refusal to give precedence to economic reforms which did much to bring about the Brexit vote. Before his referendum, Cameron sought concessions from EU leaders and thought he had an ally in Merkel. In the event Merkel welched on the private assurances she had given him and refused to give Cameron the deal that would have helped him argue for continued membership. In this respect Merkel was responsible for Brexit since she blocked Cameron's key demand which was limitations of the free movement of labor. It was the EU's inflexibility that caused this dangerous rupture with one of its top three members. On the evidence of the weekend EU27 meeting, at present it shows no sign of being any less flexible.


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