DONALD Trump tore up the US political playbook. Against every expectation, he first worsted the Republican political establishment to win that party's White House nomination. Then in the teeth of scandal and outrage, he beat Hillary Clinton. For better or worse, the president-elect has changed the face of American politics. A major question now is whether or not his seemingly off-the-cuff, unedited pronouncements will achieve the same level of success in international affairs? Diplomacy has come to be a subtle and careful business where patience and the longer view predominate. The international community understandably believes that it is better to stage endless conferences and intricate behind-the-scenes negotiations than to allow geopolitical rivalries to come to a potentially violent head. But the Trump manner and style in uncompromising. On the stump this year, he regularly berated China for what he saw as unfair commercial practices which had cost US workers their jobs. A tougher presidential line on China seemed inevitable. But few were expecting that the president-elect might immediately court a confrontation with Beijing. Yet that is what he now seems to be doing. It all started innocently enough, with what seasoned diplomats initially took to be an act of naivety on behalf of Trump, which demonstrated his lack of savvy when it came to international relations. In the wake of his victory, Trump took a congratulatory call from Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen. China considers the island of Formosa (Taiwan) to be a breakaway province. The Kuomintang forces of Chiang Kai-shek retreated there in 1949 leaving the mainland in the hands of Mao's communists. Since 1979 and the Nixon "One China" rapprochement with Beijing, there have been no formal US diplomatic relations with Taiwan, though US arms makers have continued supply the country with "defensive" weaponry, despite some huffing and puffing from Beijing. Far from in any way apologizing, Trump has that the it would have been "discourteous" not to have taken the call from President Tsai. He has also asked why he should need Beijing's permission to take a phone call from anyone. Instead he came out fighting. China was devaluing its currency, taxing US imports, building illegal island bases in the South China Sea and "not helping" with North Korea and its nuclear weapons program. The response from the Chinese has been to say that they are "seriously concerned". This is probably an understatement. Analysts in Beijing will be falling over themselves to try and work out the new US president's intentions and the military and commercial implications. After eight years of measured not to say indecisive direction from the Obama White House the world is facing a very unknown quantity in Donald Trump. There may be those in Washington Establishment who are quietly rejoicing that America has a leader prepared to give voice to what many of them feel. But equally, most will be asking themselves if Trump's is the way to go about it. In 1900, President Theodore Roosevelt famously offered the advice "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." The Donald clearly has no problem carrying the big stick. What must be of concern is that he does not appear to have the initial willingness, or even ability, to speak softly.
