Late in July last year and after he was sworn in at the US embassy in Kabul as US ambassador to Afghanistan, Ryan Crocker said that the sole interest of the United States is Afghanistan's security and stability and ensuring that the country never again becomes a haven for international terrorism. Unfortunately, things have not gone that way. What happened in Afghanistan in 2011 challenged Crocker's statement and put a big question mark on the future of the country . The Americans have to overcome big obstacles in their quest to fulfill what they claim to be their interest in Afghanistan before 2014 when their troops leave the country and turn over all security responsibilities to the Afghan government. First, they have to restore normal relations with Pakistan. The bilateral relations between the two countries have deteriorated in recent months following a NATO air strike that killed 24 Pakistani troops last November. Since then Pakistani officials have not shown a strong desire to engage their US counterparts in political discussions, amid an increasing public discontent in Pakistan, on mutual cooperation on security. The bilateral cooperation between the two allies is anticipated to deteriorate further. The idea of keeping US bases in the region to deter suspected Pakistani militants in tribal areas remains an option which will likely cause problems for both sides from time to time. Analysts say that Americans will not keep military bases in Afghanistan but the situation might change given the development of Taliban capabilities on the ground. Crocker, who said last year the US had no hidden agenda in Afghanistan, might eventually conclude that his country's disengagement in Afghanistan after 2014 is clear to the extent that it might distort the vision of peace for the country. A lot of money has been spent to reinforce the Afghan security forces, but illiteracy and corruption still pose a threat to peace for the country after 2014 when the current 91,000 US troops leave. The Americans should not underestimate that problem which will certainly worsen, given the reports about the continuous coordination between Al-Qaeda leaders and Afghan Taliban on one side and the Pakistani militants on the other and their determination to battle international forces. A significant role in such coordination has been noted for Al-Qaeda commander Abu Yahya Al-Libi, Afghan Taliban's spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid and Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud. To analysts and observers, additional leverage that the Taliban might have in peace negotiations will intensify fears about the future of Afghanistan. Another obstacle to peace in Afghanistan in 2012 and beyond is financial assistance. The US is committed to allocate up to $600 million per year to the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) to accelerate development programs, and, in November last year, the International Monetary Fund approved a three-year $133.6 million loan for Afghanistan for the same purpose. International organizations and financial institutions are also trying to raise more funds. These are good efforts but the numbers are not convincing; economic experts estimate that Afghanistan will need almost $10 billion per year to enhance development and support local security forces after 2014. They argue that the country will depend on foreign assistance until 2025. The unfavorable international lending market conditions with continued concerns about the current financial crisis might exacerbate the situation and will have a negative impact on the total foreign assistance intended for Afghanistan. The international community has to reassess Afghanistan security and financial needs more wisely; the exit strategy of the US will support peace in Afghanistan only if America and the international community engages Pakistan in a new constructive dialogue, firmly meets the challenges of Taliban militants and guarantees adequate financial resources to reconstruct the damaged and impoverished country. __
