The bomb explosion in the heart of Istanbul's tourist district is a wake-up call for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Until now the terrorists of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) have targeted Turks, particularly of Kurdish ethnicity. Now the killers are going after tourists. Daesh murders have already shattered the tourist industries of Tunisia and Egypt. Clearly the terrorists have decided it is time to do the same to Turkey, which is ranked the world's sixth most popular holiday destination. Turkey's historic and cultural treasures combined with its beach resorts are reckoned to have drawn 42 million tourists last year earning some $30 billion in foreign currency. Even though the country has other strings to its economic bow, the tourist dollar accounted for some 12 percent of gross national product in 2015 and the sector supports around ten percent of the workforce. Therefore, the effect of these latest crimes is likely to be very serious. In many respects Erdogan has only himself to blame. While resolute in his condemnation of the bloody Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, the Turkish president chose to back the wrong opposition forces. A blind eye was turned to the movement of Daesh terrorists through Turkey. The fanatics were able to establish networks to transship supporters and war materiel, principally via Istanbul. As long as they were able to do so, the terrorists did not threaten Turkey itself. But Erdogan should have realized from the outset that he was riding a tiger. When he tried to get off, his country would also become a victim of the fanatics. And so it has proved. Turkey has finally moved militarily against the terrorists and as a result is being mauled. The irony is that Ankara's air strikes on Daesh have been limited. Erdogan instead chose to use the Syrian emergency as an excuse to resume his onslaught on the Kurdish separatist PKK. The man who, when prime minister, had once done more than any previous Turkish politician to recognize the rights of Turkish Kurds and negotiate a ceasefire, now turned on them in a renewed brutal campaign. It remains debatable if PKK terrorists were the first to break the truce in place since 2012. Questions remain over the murderous attack on policeman in a remote eastern area that triggered Erdogan's response. Turkey thus now faces two internal conflicts. The war with the PKK is at least a known challenge. The army will continue to struggle, almost certainly in vain, to completely defeat the PKK. Since 1984, 45,000 people have been killed and as many as three million people forced to become refugees. Those terrible totals are set to rise yet further, until another truce is called at some probably distant point in the future and the two communities start talking to each other again. The conflict with Daesh, however, is by contrast completely unknown. Erdogan is confronted with a demented death cult which is seeing its principle supply lines being cut. The terrorists have the resources and the amoral dedication to wreak havoc in Turkish society. They have started with tourism. Once Turkey's tourist hotels and beaches are empty, the fanatics will turn to other vulnerable targets. The country's security forces will be stretched to the limit as they fight a war on two fronts.
