Al Madina Newspaper The political literature in the Arab world nowadays focuses on the ethical motives behind the Saudi initiative for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to move from a phase of cooperation to a phase of union. Although the literature focuses on a decision or a policy to stir up public sentiments, such sentiments quickly diminish. Perhaps this is why Arab policies are just separate phases. Each phase differs according to the decisions of its leader and ends once the leader is gone. Then a new phase starts and public sentiments are aroused again. In fact, there is no strategic project. Over the past century, the Arab region has seen several attempts to establish a union but many have failed. No attempts have been made to pinpoint the reasons and factors that led to this failure. The Arab attempts which have succeeded in this regard were successful because they were made at the national level. Even these successful attempts have not been studied and analyzed to identify the reasons for their success. The experience of the Gulf Cooperation Council has been successful so far due to the high awareness level of its member countries of the risks around them and their fear that such risks might dash the hopes of their people and threaten the stability of the region. This experience reflected a high level of understanding of the security needs of the region and a quick response to the security and strategic challenges that the region faces. The security risks were manifested when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and proclaimed it to be Iraq's 19th province. Another example was the Iranian intervention in Bahraini affairs in the middle of this year which almost threatened the country's existence. Sensing danger and raising awareness about the best way to deal with the threat, it led the GCC to achieve some success in thwarting the threat, maintaining its stability and adopting innovative mechanisms to reactivate ways to counter such risks. In this context, we can view the suggestion of King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, at the 32nd Gulf Summit in Riyadh to shift the Gulf Cooperation Council to a phase of union. There are many risks facing the GCC countries with Iran's policies toward the region among the most dangerous. Another risk is the political situation in Iraq where sectarian conflicts are sweeping the country following the American army pullout and because of Tehran's clear influence in Iraq. The fragile political situation in Syria is another source of threat to the Gulf region. While Bashar Al-Assad threatens to spark sectarian conflicts in the region, some parties insinuate that there is a deal between Washington and Tehran in which the US would control Syria and Iran would control Iraq. Some people go so far as to say that the US sees the Iranian influence in Iraq as a threat to the security situation in the Gulf. This they say would allow Washington to mobilize militarily to secure oil wells and oil passages for America, Europe and the Far East. These fears can justify the apprehension of the GCC countries about the threat to their security and resources. However, such fears cannot be the main reason behind the Saudi initiative for the GCC to shift to a phase of union. Why? Because the Saudi initiative is a strategic one. It transforms the entire region to a different phase in terms of structure, purpose and work mechanism. It reflects accurate analysis of the geographical and political facts and the continuing changes in the region. Even Moscow is about to change after being affected by the fever of the Arab Spring. The GCC initiative takes into consideration the facts related to the change in the balance of power in light of the financial crisis that has hit the world. It also sees an opportunity in light of the crises sweeping the region which are about to change the region's political landscape. It takes into consideration the critical time for the emergence of a new regional power that may control global energy and protect it for future generations. It appears that the Gulf model is following the European model and learning from its mistakes and successes. There are two facts realized early by the two European superpowers — France and Germany. The first fact was expressed by General Charles De Gaulle, founder of the Fourth French Republic, that his country should have the right to have a nuclear deterrent system. At the time, he said: “Washington won't sacrifice New York for the blue eyes of Paris.” That means one should have power and strategic vision. The second fact was expressed by Willy Brandt, socialist adviser to Germany in the 1970s, when he signed a contract with the Soviet Union to export Soviet gas to western Europe through German territories. The United States and Europe criticized Brandt for allegedly dealing with the enemy. Brandt responded that he was building ties with Moscow, adding that the Kremlin could not risk destroying that relationship because it would lose a lot. Preserving power and protecting interests are the tools of strategic policies. The Gulf should focus on these two factors in building the Arab Gulf Union. The hopes of the Arab people lie in the initiative of King Abdullah. __
