Reuters Even if negotiators manage to remove President Ali Abdullah Saleh from power, Yemen's descent into anarchy and deprivation looks irreversible, posing vast risks for its people. Anti-Saleh demonstrations spiraled in Yemen after the overthrow of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in February, in a new twist to the myriad, chronic crises that had already ignited fears of state failure or civil war in the poorest Arab country. For months, Yemen has muddled on through protests, privations and bursts of deadly violence. Citizens press on with daily life as soon as the crash of rocket fire tapers off. Gulf and Western mediators have sought to induce Saleh to sign a deal with opposition parties under which, broadly, he would quit in return for immunity from prosecution — anathema to street protesters demanding his removal and prosecution. Saleh backed away from the deal three times before he was badly wounded in an assassination attempt in June and few Yemenis believe he will ever relinquish power willingly. The struggle to end the president's 33-year rule is muddied by the ambitions of elite tribal and military leaders, but even a diplomatic solution will not reprieve Yemen from the breakaway revolts fraying its fabric or the resource crunch pushing a fast-growing population into a battle for survival. “Yemen has entered an almost permanent deterioration that will take years, if not decades, to reverse,” said a Western diplomat in Sana'a, who asked not to be named. “It's hard to accept, but we're not going to get closure with a political deal. We are in for a long haul for decades.” The unstable political stalemate has encouraged insurgents, tribesmen and militants to chip swathes of the country away from government control, never very strong in Yemen. “Saleh is just the strongman of the strongest faction in the country, which is all factions now,” said one Yemeni official, who asked not to be named. A senior diplomat cited Western intelligence sources as saying that Yemen has the military might to beat the militants. “That they have not done this points to political reasons.” Western and Gulf powers want Saleh to sign a transition deal in the hope that this would restore stability. Aggravated by political deadlock and the accompanying violence, Yemen's gravest long-term threat is a swelling humanitarian disaster as oil and water resources disappear. Experts estimate that last year's 35 percent unemployment rate has more than doubled, while two thirds of Yemen's 24 million people may now be living below the poverty line. That has prompted an increase in emergency humanitarian aid, but insecurity has halted crucial development work. “You can do as much as you want to save lives, but if no one is offering support to rebuild, the likelihood people will slide right back is much higher,” said one aid worker, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media. __
