Reuters TURKEY is piling pressure on Syria with border military exercises, economic sanctions and the harboring of Syrian opposition groups and army defectors, but Ankara must tread carefully to avoid arousing the suspicion of Arab states or spurring Syrian counter-measures. Turkey has shifted, in the space of six months, from being Syria's new best friend forever to a center of gravity for opposition to President Bashar Al-Assad outside the country. Having started out by advising Assad to exercise restraint and make reforms when pro-democracy unrest first erupted in March, Turkey is now on the verge of invoking sanctions against a government it once sat down with for joint cabinet meetings. Syrian dissidents abroad, and some who have managed to sneak out of the country, have flocked to Istanbul over the past few months to give the revolution a united political front. And Turkey has given sanctuary to the most senior Syrian military officer to defect, while this week it began manoeuvres in a province over which Syria has had longstanding claims. “Turkey is clearly taking sides now,” said Cengiz Aktar, professor at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University. “Turkey expects this opposition and the upheaval in the country will eventually finish the job and the revolution will bring an end to the regime.” But Turkey's policy shift, which has aligned Ankara more closely with the West, comes with risks. “Syrian intelligence might use every opportunity to instigate Kurdish violence,” Aktar said, referring to Turkey's restive minority population. Aktar said Turkey, whose clout in the Middle East has grown out of a combination of economic growth and secular democracy, could see goodwill evaporate if it is perceived to be meddling in Syria. “At the end of the day, Turkey risks being told to mind its own business and to first put its house in order. The more it wants to be a soft power the more it is going to be told by the international community to apply the same standards with its Kurds minority.” For all their closeness over the past decade, the two countries almost went to war in the late 1990s over Syria giving refuge to Kurdish militants fighting the Turkish state. Living under Turkish protection, Syrian Colonel Riad Al-As'aad exhorts his former comrades to desert to organize the armed struggle he believes is needed to drive Assad from power. “We assure them (the Syrian people) they should be patient, and God willing, very soon, Bashar will be between their hands,” As'aad told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. “We must be patient. We hope the Syrian people will be stronger and remain committed to continue to bring down the regime.” Revolted by the killing of Syrian civilians, and seeing the tide of history turn with the “Arab Spring” of popular uprisings, Turkey has calculated that its long term interest lies in supporting the Syrian people's struggle for democracy. __
