Global energy use is expected to jump 53 percent by 2035, largely driven by strong demand from places like India and China, according to the US government's Energy Information Administration Monday. Combined, developing nations currently use slightly more energy than those in the developed world, according to the US government's Energy Information Administration. By 2035, they are expected to use double. "Concerns about fiscal sustainability and financial turbulence suggest that economic recovery in the (developed) countries will not be accompanied by the higher growth rates associated with past recoveries," the report said. "In contrast, growth remains high in many emerging economies, in part driven by strong capital inflows and high commodity prices." The 53 percent rise is slightly more than the 49 percent increase the agency predicted in last year's report. Accompanying the surge in energy use is a correspondingly large jump in greenhouse gas emissions. EIA sees energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rising 43 percent by 2035. The projections, in the agency's 2011 International Energy Outlook, are based on current policies. They could change substantially if countries like the United States and China passed stronger laws restricting carbon dioxide emissions. Higher or lower energy price projections can also influence the report's findings. EIA assumed slightly lower oil prices in calculating this year's report. The agency predicts oil prices to reach $108 per barrel in 2020 and $125 per barrel in 2035. Last year EIA thought oil would be at $133 a barrel by 2035. EIA's numbers do not include price increases attributed to the normal rise in inflation. Fossil fuels will continue to be the dominant fuel choice in 2035, the agency predicts, with renewables constituting just 14 percent to the world's overall energy consumption. But that's a substantial jump from renewable energy consumption in 2008, which stood at 10 percent. That growth rate makes renewables the fastest growing of all the energy sources, the report said. The agency noted that most future renewable energy supply will continue to come from wind and hydropower. It did not include biofuels like ethanol as part of its renewable catalog, instead lumping it in with liquid fuels like oil. EIA does not expect solar power to become a significant energy source by 2035. That runs counter to the opinion of solar power supporters who foresee rapidly declining prices for solar panels in the coming years. The agency predicts nuclear power will go from about 5 percent of overall energy consumption in 2008 to about 7 percent in 2035. The vast majority of new nuclear plants are expected to be built in China. EIA did not factor in how last year's nuclear disaster in Japan might impact nuclear power plant construction.
