Madina newspaper I received a short text message the other day. The sender wrote “… so what's after all this?” Not knowing the sender, I wondered what ‘this' refers to in the message. A few minutes later came the answer. “Why didn't you answer my question,” the voice said. “Who is this?” I asked. The caller, who turned out to be my friend, was asking about the political turmoil in Egypt and Tunisia and other Arab countries that have been gripped by revolutions. These revolutions have confused my friend and he wants to know what was going to happen next. What is going to happen when the fever of revolutions and change that hit some Arab countries abates? “Your's is a confusing question,” I said. It was obvious from the question that my friend had run out of patience. I started to assure him, despite my worry, that everything was going to be all right and there was nothing to worry about for many reasons. Then I started counting the following reasons for him: First: You want to see quick results and you do not want to admit that what is going on in some Middle Eastern countries is a unique experience in the Arab history. It is an experience that is not governed by any law and that does not have one common melodramatic end. Second: The last time similar revolutions were staged against regimes around the world was a few decades ago and some took place in Eastern Europe two decades ago. However, these revolutions differ in nature, motives and the culture of the region, the rulers against whom revolutions were staged and the supporters of the revolutions. We cannot use these factors to draw an analogy or use the same solutions that Eastern Europe used at the time and apply them to Arab revolutions that have been staged for different motives, circumstances as well as cultural and intellectual perspectives. Third: This difference between the European and Arab revolutions did not only deprive Arab revolts of a model or guidelines to follow to make change, but it also resulted in the emergence of several strong parties before toppling the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. These parties were calling for establishing the long-awaited caliphate and looking for the long-awaited caliph. Some parties, on the other hand, were still clinging to the dream of establishing a civil country. However, all parties had different interpretations to basic concepts such as “country”, “civilization” and “modernity”. Fourth: What characterizes the 21st century revolutions in the Middle East is that their supporters knew how to make good use of communications technology and social networking sites. Although the supporters met online, they were surprised, it seemed, when they met again at Tahrir Square and other squares. It turned out that they had never met before and that they had different agendas that could not have been discovered online or at the early hours of gathering at the Tahrir Square. The meeting was similar to that of a bride who sees her groom for the first time on the night of wedding. The supporters of the revolution did not have a real opportunity to meet with each other and decide on who was good enough to lead the revolution. There was no clear political vision about what things should be done subsequent to the collapse of the old regime. Fifth: Those who supported the revolution following the overthrow of the former regime were fast-tracking the results of the revolution. That explains why we had seen protests staged by people who wanted higher wages and a solution for unemployment. Some even took to the streets calling for social justice. These are the members of the ‘Couch' Party or Silent Party who believe that a revolution that does not achieve social justice from the outset should be stopped. So, they got up off their couches and decided to put an end to the revolution. Sixth: What is happening now is a movement that follows the first wave of the revolution. This movement, which has started to grow, will be followed by subsequent waves that will accumulate. Some waves will continue striving to put an end to the revolution and some will remove some revolutionists or negate the gains of the revolution. Seventh: We should realize from the outset that this is how revolutions work. A revolution is not a mere project that can be cancelled and redesigned; it is not a project that was designed by a military general from the top of his tank. Rather, it is a dynamic operation that begins when the first victim of the revolution falls dead. It does not stop until it forms a vision, has an agenda, political weight and supporters. Eighth: Fear of history might be the reason why a revolution's protection forces, which the revolutionists entrusted with this task, are hesitant to take action. This was clearly manifested in the phone call of a member of the Higher Armed Forces Council (HAFC) to a talk show. The HAFC member warned against the law which grants workers and farmers 50 percent wage increases on the grounds that this law was one of the great achievements made in the revolution of July 1952. He forgot that the current revolution, which is bigger and more important than that of July 1952, overthrew the regime which came at that time. The general justified his fears by saying “What will history say about us?” as if his going down in history depends on what we will do now not on what we have done so far.This logic is similar to the regime which was overthrown by the revolution and whose leaders used to say “suffice it to say that a civil war or new clashes were averted thanks to the president (the former president of course). Thus, the president was taking credit for the things he did not do instead of taking credit for the things he should have done. Ninth: For these reasons and many others which I do not have space to list, I am not worried over what is happening and I do not see it as something that threatens future sweeping changes in Egypt and Tunisia. What really worries me is the difficulty of directing a revolution that is in baby stages, a matter which requires a lot of patience. What is happening to revolution now is just a phase that will be logically followed by other stages which will take the revolution to maturity. __
