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Moving from the ideology conflict to the influence conflict
Al-Riyadh Editorial
Published in Alriyadh on 24 - 03 - 2014

The base of the conflict between the West and the Czarist, Bolshevik and, later on, capitalist Russia is the deep religious conflicts between the Orthodox (Church) and the rest European churches. Thus, the events occurring successively until today during which we face a new course of the influence conflict.
The West is calling Putin a Czar due to his mixture of the Marxist legacy and being a man of intelligence who held on of the important positions during the Soviet era but is ruling through the mentality of the Russian Czars though through a modern style and mind.
In spite of that the Russians are strongly impressed by the European advancement; the national spirit is still controlling them to a big extent. The conflict about Crimea has transformed Putin to a national leader in a way that increased his influence as a stubborn rival of a historical enemy. This is related to the ebb and flow when the Russian lands used to be looked at as a booty by some European and Eastern empires together with a Russian trend towards expansion in Eastern Europe whether during the Czars and previous Kingdoms eras or after Yalta Conference which had set the borders and provided Russia with a part of Germany and East European countries.
Due to such historical breaks, the West had ambitions that the legacy of the Soviet sick man shall be inherited by it. Indeed, most Eastern European countries returned towards joining the European Union and allowed the establishment of NATO military bases on its lands. During the Russian stage of weakness, Russia accepted to keep silent and to behave in a neutral way. However, the stage that followed Yeltsin has witnessed the rise of the public national feeling which had started to refuse the defeat. Therefore, the present Crimea problem is a power test in all political, military and economic aspects.
It is true that Russia looks at the new condition as a conflict of life or death as Crimea is located within its strategic surrounding. Thus, accepting the reality of that Crimea becomes a part of Ukraine and a base for NATO in the far future is scenario which is refused by the necessities of its security, in addition to that it knows that its foes, regardless of their trends and arguments, are not going to take the risk of adopting a military action similar to the one occurred earlier in Bosnia. The American and European retreat from striking Syria, itself, had been due to the concerns or fears of a long war during which the Russian shall support Al-Assad militarily and economically in a way that transforms Syria to another Iraq. These events have provided Russia with bigger influence and international prestige that led the world towards considering that Russia represents the equivalent power in the Arab region and out of it.
Accordingly, Crimea opened many doors for the discordant interests. In this regard, the biggest loser may be Ukraine due to that its need to Russia is more important while Europe cannot be really trusted due to its financial suffer. Meanwhile, the United States considers that the Ukrainian Problem is a European concern while Germany is going to be the most affected in case of an new procedure that imposes danger on Russia due to that it is the biggest investor in it and the most important importer of its gas. This situation shall make the calculation of gains and losses controversial, at least, if it doesn't push Europe towards conflicts about the consequences that shall occur between the two sides.
The coming days or months shall reveal the consequences of these conflicts. However, the Russian are heading forward towards implementing their project and are ready to bear the results regardless of their severity, especially if the state procedures are going to meet with the national interest and keep supporting it.


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