During his annual New Year's address on Sunday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's dropped a bombshell: He stated as part of his review of the past year's accomplishments that North Korea has entered "the final stage in preparations to test-launch" an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). One that could hit the United States. That, at least, is Kim's intent. For years, these threats were treated as bluster because it was clear that the country did not have the capabilities to match them. This may have changed in 2016. Last year, North Korea conducted missile tests of various types on 24 occasions, including tests of both its estimated 3,000 kilometer-range Musudan intermediate-range missile and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). North Korean media claims that the country now has "standardized" a nuclear warhead that can be delivered on such missiles and to have made progress toward mastering atmospheric re-entry required to develop an ICBM. Some analysts assess that North Korea already has the ability to conduct a nuclear strike on the U.S. with an ICBM, and continued North Korean progress in this direction would give the country a small but formidable nuclear strike capability by 2020. This burst of activity designed to expand North Korea's capabilities is why Kim's declarations of intent must be taken seriously. President-elect Donald Trump responded with two tweets: North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2017 China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won't help with North Korea. Nice! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2017 But neither engaging in a rhetorical "threatdown" with North Korea nor expecting China to denuclearize the country obscures the fact that as long as North Korea continues to make progress toward nuclear development, time is not on the side of the U.S. Kim Jong Un has staked his survival and his strategy on the idea that the U.S., in the end, will acquiesce to a nuclear North Korea rather than engage in forceful regime change measures that would involve huge financial costs to China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. Kim asserted as much again in his New Year's Day speech: Only when the U.S. sets aside its "hostile policy" by curtailing annual U.S.-ROK military exercises and recognizing a nuclear North Korea would conditions be in place for North Korea's denuclearization.
