No Arab official can deny that we are in the worst situation on the Arab level. There are those who think that we are in the worst situation in the region, that what is coming is even more terrible, and that if the storm blows, it will threaten the safety and stability of countries, and even their unity. They also believe that the region is increasingly slipping towards the abyss. It is hard for any high-ranking official to publically acknowledge in his name that the situation is dramatic to that extent. Such declarations can affect his country and his relations with the other countries. Hence, a journalist can only transfer the message without citing names. I asked the Arab official to give Al Hayat readers a brief list of the dangers he sees: - The Iraqization that Pakistan has begun to go through heralds a great crisis in this nuclear country that was initially born after a bloody separation with India. This means we might see Barack Obama's administration drown in a Pakistani-Afghan crisis that would drain its status, abilities, and time, and would divert its attention away from other parts of the world and prevent it from playing effective roles there. We must remember that such a crisis concerns India and China as much as it does Russia as it constitutes a test of the balance of forces in the club of Giants. - Such US involvement will increase President Mahmoud Abbas' wish to leave. Such a step implies a clear defeat of the logic of negotiation and the moderation camp in the region. Such a climate might witness the beginning of a new intifada that can hardly remain bloodless. Perhaps the conflict has taken the form of a religious war because of the Israeli practices that constitute a threat to Jerusalem and Al Aqsa. Who knows, Al Qaeda might enter through this window by way of a resounding military act. - Another danger would be if Benjamin Netanyahu's government took advantage of the Obama administration's confusion regarding the Pakistani-Afghan file in order to launch a military operation against the Iranian nuclear facilities. It will hard for Iran not to respond to the attack, and it is probable that any retaliation on the regional level will lead America into a conflict, and we would hence be faced with a huge fire. - Another scenario could take place in Lebanon. After Israel's stories about detaining the ship that it claimed was transporting Iranian weapons to Hezbollah, caution must be heightened. Israel can use any rocket launching from South Lebanon to wage a massive destructive revenge operation under the pretext of confronting the Iranian arms in the region. - We should also not neglect the danger of the raging battles in Yemen and the attempt of the Huthis to transfer the unrest beyond the borders, had it not been for the determined Saudi response. There is also the possibility of the return of violence escalation in Iraq with the elections getting closer. Moreover, there is the cross-border sectarian tension that is of concern to sensitive or fragile locations in the region. The Arab official's discourse worried me. When I asked him about ways to cut off the catastrophic scenario, he merely said: rescuing the peace process, reviving negotiations, reining Netanyahu's government, opening the door for the return of the Golan Heights to Syria, and Iran's acceptance of the latest offer it received. It is evident to remember that the regional fires are started on Arab land; that destabilization targets Arab countries; that the conflict victims are Arabs in the end. It is also evident to remember that the Arab response to the list of dangers is much less than what is required, that inter-Arab reconciliations have yet to be completed, and that Arabs await the storm without any guarantee or umbrella.
