Messages that are not only different but contradictory are delivered to the Iranian leadership by the administration of President Barack Obama. These messages do not serve the hard-line position which this administration says it has adopted in dealing with Tehran, especially after revealing the "new" nuclear plant nearby the city of Qum. President Obama announced in front of the G-20 Summit leaders in Pittsburg that Iran is taking a path that will lead to confrontation. At the same time, he did not rule out "any option" in responding to the Iranian behavior. We can understand that the message that the American president wanted to address to the Iranians is to the effect that the military option in dealing with the Iranian crisis is on the table, in the event the dialogue with Tehran fails to prompt it to adopt a different behavior with regard to the nuclear dossier. However, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who is supposed to be acquainted with the Pentagon's military plans, reiterated yesterday in his statement to CNN that the economic and diplomatic pressures on Iran have better chances to succeed. He also ruled out the efficiency of the military strikes against the nuclear site in Qum. It seemed clear that the secretary of defense was settling the position vis-à-vis the military strike by saying: No military option against Iran can achieve any goals other than gaining time. He pointed out that Iran is able to own nuclear weapons within one to three years. This occurred at a time when Iran was launching its military maneuvers on missiles, which have an executive and not a diplomatic role. These maneuvers are expected to reach their peak today with the experiment of "Chehab 3" missile whose range extends to the Gulf States and the American bases in the region, let alone the entire Middle East. For whoever doubts the purpose of testing these missiles, Hussein Salami, the commander of the air force affiliated to the Revolutionary Guard, affirmed that the message behind these maneuvers is to lay emphasis to the choice of resistance which has no limits on Iran's end, and to its ability to remain steadfast and inflict harm on the enemies. If one were to put himself in the shoes of the ruling leaders in Tehran, he would interpret the contradicting American messages addressed to them in one of the following two ways: Either there is a disagreement within the Obama's administration over the forthcoming step vis-à-vis Iran, if the sanctions were to fail; or there is an attempt to keep Iran busy with the diplomatic track while a strike against is underway, either directly or in cooperation with Israel, or even by giving Israel a green light to stage the strike itself. Both cases strengthen Iran: The disagreement within the American administration, if it were true, strengthens it. Also, its doubts over the diplomatic behavior towards it will reinforce its hard-line position towards this dialogue, as long as it is not convinced of the serious and honest intentions of the dialogue holders towards it. In reality, the West, and the United States in particular, finds itself in a predicament in dealing with Iran. This West suffers from two complexes it inherited from the Bush administration: Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran realizes this fact, manipulates it, and fiddles with it. It also does the same with the weapon of the sanctions which was previously tried but to no avail, and there is no guarantee that it will succeed now, or even enjoy consensus during the Geneva meeting scheduled for next Thursday – especially amid the pressure put by the known Chinese reservations. This is in case we assume that Russia, under President Medvedev, will go along with the Western countries (the United States, France, Britain, and Germany) when it comes to the sanctions issue. The only thing that might worry Iran in the current crisis is the extent to which the crisis will threaten the regime itself. The irony is that the external escalation strengthens the regime inside Iran and blocks the road before its overt and silent opponent. This is another card that pushes the leaders in Tehran to manifest further nuclear hard-line position, regardless of the cost, thanks to the sanctions described as the weapon of the "powers of international arrogance" against the rights of the Islamic nation. This has prompted the director of the bureau of the revolution's guide Ali Khamenei to say, after the disclosure of Qum's plant, that the Iranian regime is now at "the peak of its power".
