The Supreme Leader and his advisors gazed at the White House. They saw there a president who does not resemble George W. Bush at all. They saw a president who does not want to overthrow the Iranian regime, and does not want to involve America in a new war. This means that Barack Obama represents an opportunity. Dealing with him would be better than waiting for his successor. Furthermore, the Syrian crisis gave Russia an opportunity to make a strong comeback to the regional stage. The Supreme Leader and his advisers looked at the economic situation. The sanctions are truly crippling. Incomes have fallen. The currency has deteriorated. Inflation and unemployment figures portend what is worse. Waiting for additional years carries many risks, including having to negotiate from a weaker position. Another risk is for the street to explode in wrath, in a manner that goes beyond the Green Movement, which the regime succeeded in putting down. The Supreme Leader and his advisers gazed at the region. They saw Iran embroiled in a costly regional-sectarian conflict on Syrian territory. The cost of keeping the regime alive there is measured in the billions of dollars annually. There are also the Soviet-like commitments from the mountains controlled by the Huthis to Gaza, though Lebanon. The continuation of economic hemorrhaging practically threatens the ability to fulfill commitments and may weaken the cards Iran holds. The Supreme Leader and his advisors gazed at the region, and realized that they control important cards. No new government can be formed in Iraq without Tehran's approval. No new government can be formed in Lebanon without its consent. Iran inherited the role of the Syrian regime in Iraq. It also inherited its previous role in Lebanon. Some speak about inheriting it on Syrian soil itself. It is time to obtain international recognition of the results of the broad Iranian attack on the nuclear and regional fronts. This role cannot be entrusted to someone who resembles Ahmadinejad. The "choice" thus fell on Hassan Rouhani, and so it was. Iranian democracy works effectively under the Supreme Leader's mantle. In long races, horses need to be changed sometimes, and so does discourse. The diplomatic offensive launched by Rohani in New York revealed Obama's eagerness for accord with Iran. The marathon negotiations in Geneva were the fruit of what happened in New York. Sitting with the Americans is no longer treason and compromise on principles. The slogan Death to America appeared like an outdated placard that can be retried if Iran obtains what it wants or a major part of what it wants. Some of those who followed up the American-Iranian issue believe that Tehran can delay its plans to produce a nuclear bomb and limit itself to having the ability to produce one, or coming close to doing so. On the other hand, the same pundits believe that Iran is not ready to offer major concessions when it comes to the offensive it waged to become a major player in the region. Here, some difficult questions arise: Can the fate of the battle for the nuclear dream be separated from the fate of the deep desire to become a senior partner of "Great Satan"? More clearly, can America conclude a major deal with Iran without the issue of Israel's security being present, at least under the table, if it is not possible for it to be directly on the table? Is Iran ready to make such a deal, after decades of its leaders declaring that Israel is a "cancer" that must be removed? Is Iran ready for a long-term truce in this regard? What about the discourse of resistance and defiance that it relied upon to expand its military, political, and security presence in the region? What about Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian Palestinian groups, who are protected by Iranian aid from withering and waning? Can Iran conclude a real deal with the West without changing? Is the clash with the West and Israel not one of the conditions for the solidity of the Iranian role in the region? Can such a deal be born and can it live unless the Supreme Leader himself is not convinced that the revolution must retire, with its discourse, dreams, and delusions, paving the way for the emergence of a normal state that respects international borders, international law, and the concerns of its neighbors? Most probably, we are at the beginning of a long and complicated path. We are speaking of a region that sleeps on great riches, but also on a sea of delicate balances, concerns, and a memory burdened with conflict and feuds. It would be premature to believe that the two sides are ready to pay the price for the grand bargain. It is still early to make a list of the fruits of the Iranian offensive, which has been shaking the region for three decades. Iran lives to the rhythm of the hands of the Supreme Leader's watch. The Supreme Leader is the custodian of the discourse, and is the only one able to manipulate its vocabulary. Washington, meanwhile, claims to be "neither blind nor stupid," as Kerry said.
