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Keeping Al-Assad Afloat And Qualifying Khamenei
Published in AL HAYAT on 10 - 10 - 2013

While Secretary of State John Kerry's praising of President Bashar al-Assad's commitment to the implementation of the agreement to dismantle the Syrian chemical arsenal constituted a scandal at the level of American foreign policy, the greater scandal was seen when an official in President Barack Obama's administration eluded the secretary's enthusiasm, which surpassed the White House policy. In any case, Washington's task appears difficult in the face of the prevailing doubts within the opposition, as the latter cannot believe in the innocent character of what appears to be a revival of the implicit recognition of the "credibility" of Al-Assad's regime, which can be relied on to ensure the integrity of the United States' interests and the requirements of Israel's security.
In reality, the entire Western openness toward what Washington used to dub the Axis of Evil, in parallel to the Syrian submission to the Russian-American agreement (to destroy the chemical arsenal) after Tehran interfered with Damascus, then Iran's rushing of the outcome of the negotiations with the P5+1 states before they are resumed in Geneva to settle the nuclear program file, enhances the facets of normalization with the two rowdy allies. In whichever case, Israel is strongly present in the nuclear and chemical deals as long as it is the greatest beneficiary from both, seeing how they guarantee its security for years to come.
After a few days of concerns surrounding the reasons behind Kerry's enthusiasm, which pushed him to jump over the facts of the massacre in Syria, it turned out that this eagerness almost made his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif sick, but for a completely different reason, i.e. the commotion raised by the hardliners in Tehran over normalization with the Great Satan. Clearly, they were encouraged by Guide Ali Khamenei's criticism of what appeared to be President Rohani's rashness to lift the sanctions imposed on Iran at whichever price. And as soon as they fabricated the story related to Zarif's lack of conviction in Rohani's cooperation with President Barack Obama's call, the heat of the conflict over dialogue and normalization with Washington and the West in general emerged to the spotlight.
At this level, it is no longer an exaggeration to say that the Syrian and Iranian courses are linked in the Guide's calculations, in parallel with the noticeable fervor of those who were – until very recently – the Iranian regime's fiercest enemies. Hence, London appears to be competing with the Americans over a share in the cake of direct dialogue with Tehran regardless of the mechanism of the P5+1 negotiations (over the nuclear file), after having relinquished its excessive eagerness to sanction the Syrian regime for the chemical massacre and arm Al-Assad's oppositionists. At the same time, the Western equation has shifted towards qualifying Tehran for normalization by providing it with a safe exit from the predicament of its nuclear program, but also the Syrian regime to keep it afloat by extending its stay in power, even if this results in the disregarding – once again – of the futile killing of thousands of other Syrians.
Kerry found in Washington someone to appease his rush to grant Al-Assad's regime a certificate of good conduct in dealing with the inspectors. As for Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, he offered painkillers to appease the West's fears towards the nuclear program, while the hardliners in Tehran hastened the enrichment of the doubts surrounding the intentions of the new rule. Some are even going back to the stage that preceded Rohani's visit to New York and his recognition of the Nazi Holocaust against the Jews, to link Khamenei's calls upon the Revolutionary Guard to abstain from interfering in politics and the sanctions cup with the Guide can no longer take.
Hence, we are at the peak of the conflict over "heroic leniency" that Rohani was assigned to carry out in the normalization wrestling match based on some sort of a settlement for the nuclear file, among the prices of which the Guide wishes to hear talk along the course of keeping the Syrian ally afloat. We are also witnessing the bitter and heated polarization between the fort of the hardliners, i.e. the Revolutionary Guard, and the Foreign Ministry, one which pushed Zarif to take a quick visit to the hospital. But this is just the beginning, considering that neither Khamenei will adopt a decision to confront the Guard, nor can the Guard come up with a solution for the sanctions predicament, just as it could not enable the Syrian regime to secure a military settlement against its oppositionists.
Damascus' full submission to the inspectors and its eagerness to please the Russian sponsor of the chemical deal is only matched by the enthusiasm of Tehran and its new authority to open gaps in the wall of the painful sanctions for the regime, after the country's economy was completely depleted. True, the game of nations in the conflict over Syria is far from having reached its last chapter. But what is also true is that the prediction of Khamenei's ability to manage the wrestling match on the rings of the nuclear program and the Revolutionary Guard at the same time is almost impossible, just like the wager on the concomitance of both tracks following the destruction of the Syrian nerve gas and chemical arsenal and the Guard's tampering with the nerves of the "hero" of compromise.


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