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Putin's Trap With Al-Assad's Fangs
Published in AL HAYAT on 12 - 09 - 2013

The master of Kremlin, the new Caesar who hijacked the Security Council more than two years ago, can brag in front of American President Barack Obama about the fact that his last minute initiative saved the master of the White House from a major setback inside Congress, as the latter does not favor the strike against Syria. In reality, Vladimir Putin is saving the Syrian regime, by practically trading its stay in power with its chemical fangs. On the other hand, Moscow's guarantees for Damascus' respect of its acceptance of international control over its chemical weapons might feature measures, maneuvering and stalling, which would make the American threat to resort to the military option a forgotten card.
Putin saved face for Obama, but he undermined the American-French military option and the Syrian opposition's hopes of seeing an imminent decisive chapter in the war with a regime that still possesses enough rockets, warplanes, and explosive barrels to proceed with its plans and eliminate the revolution, or the "terrorists" as per the Russian-Iranian definition. And while it is true that Washington in no way wishes to topple the Syrian regime by force, what is also true is that the so-called Russian initiative will extend Syria's night and revolution because the West – thanks to Moscow – would have limited the Syrians' predicament to the chemical arsenal, and turned the conflict with the regime and the destructive war into an ordinary domestic affair and a boring duel, in which the fittest will survive.
Putin's gift allowed Obama to delay the tasting of the bitter cup caused by whichever setback inside Congress - where Iraq and Afghanistan are strongly present - no matter how many times the American president reiterates that the postponed and quivering strike will remain extremely limited since it merely aims to send a punitive message. At first, and following the attack against the two Ghoutas with chemical weapons, he rushed to talk about the red line and consider that the Syrian regime had truly crossed it this time around and threatened the security of Israel and the United States. In his speech on Tuesday night, Obama spoke about the horrific scenes of agonizing children, without wondering of course about the ability of the Syrian regime's primary ally, i.e. Russia, to force it to stop the killing with non-chemical weapons, although it has so far claimed the lives of more than 100,000 people. In the meantime, everyone in the region knows that the regime will hasten the military settlement against the armed oppositionists, in case Kremlin's management of the crisis succeeds in turning the page of the American strike.
During his visit to Geneva today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will be carrying proposals for the implementation of the initiative that stripped the Syrian opposition of the strongest card on which it had wagered to topple the balance of powers at the level of the conflict. Hence, Lavrov will present American Secretary of State John Kerry with the Russian guarantees for the gradual removal of the Syrian regime's chemical fangs, without the respect of any deadline based on Damascus' previous experiences in dealing with the United Nations (from UNHCR to the fact-finding committees). And no matter how much Paris insists on maintaining the military strike option, Moscow has clearly confirmed it will in no way stop deterring any Western attempt to free the Security Council from the stick of the Russian veto.
As for the vindictive expression issued by Russia's Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin following the quick thwarting of the French draft resolution at the Council, it was no joke, as he was ecstatic because everyone will remain on their toes according to the beat set by Kremlin!
Putin did it through his fierce defense of the stay of the Syrian regime, pushing everyone to quickly forget Kremlin's public announcement of the fact that it will not engage in war to protect Bashar al-Assad and his regime. According to Arab circles, this was simply a malignant and successful misleading attempt, which made Washington and Paris believe that the Russian cover was lifted off Damascus and that it will be easy to strike it, until the surprising British rejection emerged and pushed France alone into the corner of the American decision. And as soon as Obama thought that the "limited strike" against the regime had become possible – to wipe away all the accusations made against him of being impotent and reluctant following the red lines masquerade – the Russians caught him off guard with the last minute deal, i.e. chemical disarmament in exchange for ending the threats related to the replacement of Al-Assad's regime.
The question today, following the Syrian opposition's discomfiture and setback at the hand of the Damascus-Moscow-Tehran alliance and the West's leniency and fear of getting involved in the Middle Eastern quicksand and booby-trapped conflicts, is the following: will Kerry admit to his counterpart Lavrov that Putin's condition for the launching of the chemical initiative was accepted and that Obama has relinquished the strike option?
And is the opposition not shocked by the American secretary's call on the Syrian president to seize the opportunity of the attempts to make peace, as though restoring his status and including him in the solution?
Obama, who heeded the lessons of the Iraqi experience, has temporarily avoided the bitter cup and did not volunteer – just like Francois Hollande and David Cameron – to convince any Syrian that the political solution for the war, the revolution and the conflict with the regime was possible, even after 2014.
The revolutionaries' cups are empty, except from the bitterness of Western promises, Russian deceit and the people's blood which will remain a hostage if Washington also assigns Moscow to prepare the scene for the "solution" in Geneva 2.


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