The victory by one of the conservative candidates as Iran's president – Ali Akbar Velayati, the adviser to the Supreme Leader on international affairs, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf or Saeed Jalili, the secretary of the Higher National Security Council, will change nothing in the way manages its affairs. This is because power will remain in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran is determined to continue developing its nuclear weapons, no matter what. The weakness of the west, and especially the way that President Barack Obama has dealt with Syria and the Middle East in general, will be another motive for the new Iranian president, whoever he is, to continue developing nuclear weapons and supporting the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, it will continue to give its Lebanese ally Hezbollah instructions to turn its claimed resistance against Israel to resistance against the Lebanese and Syrian peoples. The killing of Hashem al-Salman in front of the Iranian embassy in Beirut was like another 7 May 2008, as the Lebanese ally of Iran, Hezbollah, seeks to continue to terrorize and intimidate, and confirm that it is the most dominant force in Lebanon. Iran is developing nuclear weapons and its Revolutionary Guards, led by Qassem Solimani, are helping the regime in Syria, while organizing the pushing of Hezbollah into fighting in Syria for Bashar Assad. The west is unable to deter all of this. The American president says at times that Bashar Assad must go, and at others he says Europe should put him on the terrorism list, or extends a hand to the Iranian regime. But there is no change in Iran's policy, which through negotiations over the nuclear issue with the 5+1 countries has turned these talks into a joke, and a dead end in which the 5+1 countries have been unable to gain any concessions for years. Today, the Iranian elections will change the identity of the president and there are many predictions in the western press that Obama might be determined to open dialogue with Iran, either directly, or by relying on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who replaced his ties to the US with the Iranian umbrella as soon as the American troops withdrew. Obama withdrew from Iraq, giving it to Iran. The events in Syria are showing that Obama turned this country's affairs over to Russia, because he does not care enough; he suffices with condemning the killing and setting empty red lines. Obama is not concerned with the fall of Syrian cities and victims, or the fall of Qussayr. His envoy to Lebanon, Philip Gordon, did not even know where Qussayr is, when he spoke to his interlocutors in Lebanon. The Iranian regime is aware of the weakness of Obama and the west, via the talks on the nuclear issue and America's withdrawal from Iraq, and the situation in Syria. The Iranian regime, if headed by Velayati, Baqer Qalibaf or Jalili, is good at stalling, maneuvering and threatening during any negotiations. Even the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, is afraid of this, as he said "If Iran participates in Geneva 2, it will engage in extortion by giving a concession on Syria in favor of its being able to develop nuclear weapons." The international sanctions against Iran are having a big impact, especially on sales of Iranian oil, and they are leading to a growing economic crisis for the Iranian people. But despite this, the Iranian regime is determined to fund the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and some allies in Lebanon, because this is a priority of the Islamic Republic and it is more important than the interest of the Iranian people, who are suffering from inflation, unemployment, and a cost-of-living crisis. It is silly to expect that the Iranian elections could change the course of the country's policy and its relations with the west, because any negotiations between the Iran of Khamenei and Obama will be unequal – between the head of a repressive dictatorial Iranian regime and an American president who is keen to keep the US out of any military conflicts, relying on vague political stances on global issues.
