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The Challenges of Bouteflika's Illness
Published in AL HAYAT on 02 - 05 - 2013

The illness of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is no longer a secret. Yet the more thrilling secrets are those connected to the phase following this health crisis, which he will hopefully recover from. This is due to the fact that the issue, in both its humane and political aspects, does not concern the President's condition alone, but in fact affects the situation in Algeria, where a race will begin to make arrangements for the next phase. The least that can be said is that the President, who is considered to be one of the most prominent figures in the modern history of his country, will not be the same as he had been before being moved to a military hospital in Paris.
In its symbolic aspect, moving him there, although primarily for considerations of treatment, signifies that lines of communication in the relationship between Paris and Algiers are now open, in light of the results of the state visit made by French President François Hollande to Algeria, which carried a new interpretation of the history of ebb and flow between his country and its former colony. Although the matter seems a natural one, delving deep into existing sensitivities between the two countries leaves no room for doubt about the fact that the issue is one of humane normalization that strengthens the new experience of openness. And nothing arouses more acute sensitivities than addressing the issue of Algeria in France or digging up the archives of the French issue in Algeria.
Beyond the significance of a health issue, the experience of President Bouteflika has been characterized by rehabilitation to a tremendous extent, after historical legitimacy had alone been behind successive presidents, with the support and approval of the military institution, and the latter's clear influence on directing the course of events. Bouteflika added to this a democratic dimension, not least for being the first civilian president to govern Algeria after winning presidential elections. Most importantly, he acknowledged such a choice, which can no longer be retracted in the context of political developments, both for his supporters and for his rivals equally.
If such a presidential course can be ascribed to him – unlike past experiences of openness that were never completed, such as that of the rule of former President Chadli Bendjedid – this political movement did not lead to the birth of new and influential partisan forces that was supposed to accompany this process. In fact, Algeria's National Liberation Front (FLN – Front de Libération Nationale) remains one of the most prominent players whose opinions cannot be ruled out on the future of any alliances or confrontations. What helped maintain the FLN's influence was the fact that the experience of harmony adopted by Bouteflika kept Algeria away from the quagmire of terrorism in which it had been submerged for many long years.
Nevertheless, the recent confrontation in In Amenas has cast its shadow on Algeria's ambitions of playing a greater role in dealing with the growth of terrorism in the Sahel region south of the Sahara. It has thus appeared that Algeria, which had wished to gather the countries of the Sahel around it through security, political and military approaches of which it had hosted the diplomatic and defense constituents, was in fact in dire need of rearranging its own internal affairs, in connection with regional and international changes that have prompted direct military intervention by the French in Mali, and the difficulty of building a wall in the Maghreb that would limit the danger of such threats.
Yet President Bouteflika, who was able to achieve further breakthroughs, paused before the regional wager represented in the restoration of harmony to the capitals of North Africa within the framework of the Arab Maghreb Union. Perhaps this aspect represented less of an incentive in the experience of his rule, in view of what he had been relying on in terms of achieving détente, at the very least at the level of relations between his country and Morocco, this being the issue that has been marking time throughout the rule of all of Algeria's presidents. Perhaps with the exception of the period of President Chadli Bendjedid's rule which was characterized by a kind of détente and understanding, no Algerian president has been able to leap over the hurdles obstructing such a course, reflecting negatively on the already hindered establishment of the Maghreb Union. In fact, even in the issue of the borders, whose reopening had almost been within reach after President Bouteflika came to power, Algerians and Moroccans have never been able to return to the situation they had known before the decision to seal the border came into effect.
Bouteflika's illness, even if it is a humane matter, becomes a Maghreb issue and a regional issue when it is measured up to the challenges of the current phase. On the one hand, it sets aside the notion of a fourth term in office, by virtue of the law of nature which surpasses all laws, which brings back the notion of rearranging Algeria's internal affairs sooner or later. Then there is the challenge of the Maghreb Union, which imposes itself on a background of rising European and even American voices calling for the activation of the Union as a party to dialogue in the face of the challenges of the current phase. Yet the new element resides in the fact that the logic of what is known as the Arab Spring has not receded to the background, even if its momentum has diminished and its course has been hindered.
If Bouteflika has been successful at containing the particularities of this phase with a lesser extent of tension and of reactions, the eruption of social issues in numerous parts of the country does lean towards consecrating stability. It is perhaps for this reason that all parties wish to take advantage of the President's health condition as he lay in hospital – whether by suggesting that he will soon return for his supporters, or in terms of beginning to make arrangement for his not so unlikely succession. Thus, threatening to address issues of corruption is only meant to dissuade many voices from remaining in the forefront.
And just as the crisis of the FLN represented a manifestation of preoccupations about the future of the ruling party, along with some of its allies, the President's illness may well turn into a bigger crisis if preparations are not made for the future of Morocco at a calm pace that could bring together the pillars of historical legitimacy and democracy. Yet everything is being postponed until the final moment, on the background of a reality that states that Bouteflika will not in any case be the same again.


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