Fear is not a guest in the Middle East. In recent years, all the countries of the region have held their breath, and more than once. They did so when Khomeini returned and toppled the Shah's regime, and then again when Saddam Hussein's army crossed the international border towards Iran. The Middle East held its breath when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, and for the first time in history, occupied an Arab capital; when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait claiming that he was restoring a breakaway part to its fatherland; and when al-Qaeda carried out the terrorist attacks of New York and Washington. This happened again and again when U.S. tanks uprooted the statue of Saddam and the Iraqi Baath regime; when Rafik Hariri was assassinated; when Saddam's body hung; and when Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled his country. The same could be said of the moment Hosni Mubarak's regime unraveled; when Muammar Gaddafi emerged bloodstained; when Ali Abdullah Saleh bowed down to the storm that he resisted for too long; and when the Syrian regime slipped into mass killing and suicide. It would be no exaggeration to say that the region is currently living in a state of fear and panic that exceeds all that it has known in the past. The storms that have gathered have engendered an unprecedented picture. The confused governments realize that there can be no escape from making changes and offering concessions. Yet they fear that this may stimulate the appetite to make more demands. There are in the region today confused regimes whose legitimacy have been sometimes dealt severe blows, and international borders that have lost their immunity to roving fighters. There are maps that are afraid of identity crises, the temptation of divorce and smaller maps. The countries of the region feel that they are encircled by a ring of fire, around their borders and in their capitals. The ring of fire consists of chains of facts and plans that seem to be more than governments can bear, and include: - Dismal economic failure, horrifying figures for unemployment and illiteracy, and popular anger because of rising abuse, corruption and the absence of accountability and participation. This in fact is comorbid with a severe failure in education, and clear backwardness in its programs and curricula, producing generations of unemployed individuals and others who see no future except in immigrating or joining extremist and destructive ideologies. - Confusion in the process of joining the current world order and failure to adapt with the world of successive revolutions and the flow of information, and its criteria for dealing with human rights, minority rights and the role of women. - The dead end that Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations have reached, and the decline of the Israeli pro-negotiations and anti-settlement camp. - The “Arab Spring" and the hopes and fears it unleashed, especially after the Syrian stop, and the emergence of the Islamists as the sole force capable of inheriting the crumbling regimes, through the ballot boxes. These forces were not tested before, in terms of the credibility of their slogans and their commitment to the principles of democracy, citizenship and the rotation of power. - The presence of al-Qaeda in more than one country, with its fighters or supporters scurrying into countries where national unity has crumbled and the control of the regime over its territories has receded. Syria is one troublesome model, as well as Yemen. - Iran's nuclear program and the tensions it has created, and Iran's deployments in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon all the way to Yemen and Eritrea, in addition to its attempts to have roles within the borders of Gulf countries. - The Sunni-Shiite conflict, which is no longer logical to deny given the sharp polarization regarding the situation in Syria. If Arabs are to examine the map, they will find that their countries are surrounded by a ring of fire, albeit its chains are present in varying degree in accordance to each region, the immunity of the regime in it and its demographic composition. They are encircled by chains at the border, and at chains within the border. This applies to Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, and the countries of the GCC, as well as Algeria, Morocco and others. What is certain is that dealing with the ring of fire cannot be done with denial. The first step is to acknowledge the challenges, dangers and demands, and repair relations among communities, while opening the door to a change that would safeguard stability. We are still at the beginning of the season of hopes, dangers, mud and blood.
