Francois Hollande is very anxious about Lebanon. He is well-informed about the details of the country, its divisions, and the attempts by the Syrian and Iranian regimes to destabilize things. Hollande came to Lebanon after the assassination of Wissam al-Hasan, whom he described as an exceptional individual, while the Saudi leadership, during French-Saudi discussions, called the late Internal Security Forces official “a loss for Lebanon and the world." Hollande tasked France's ambassador to Beirut, Patrice Paoli, with placing a wreath on the grave of al-Hasan, which was an extremely significant gesture by the president and the French state. Hollande's visit to Lebanon and Saudi Arabia must have helped him distill ideas about how to spur movement in order to reduce the danger to Lebanon, which Hollande believes is considerable. What can France do in practical terms to try and reconcile the country's rival sides? Hollande believes that France has ties with all groups in Lebanon. He thinks that he can talk with all sides in order to help President Michel Suleiman in his bid to conduct dialogue and he might contemplate receiving visits by the leaders of the March 14 movement and MP Walid Jumblatt, in order to discuss the issue of seeing Lebanon avoid the catastrophic acts that the Syrian regime is carrying out against its people, and which it wants to see take place in Lebanon. The predicament lies in Syria, where the regime is still present, and in control of the army, while Iran is throwing all of its weight into helping the regime. Hollande visited Lebanon after his meeting in Paris with the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who told the French that Assad will die in Syria, meaning that he will not leave. Before coming to Lebanon, Hollande had also met with Benjamin Netanyahu, who told the French that he would not wait for Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, or exercise patience when it comes to actions by Hezbollah, such as the sending of an Iranian-made drone over Israel. Hollande's visit to Lebanon involved the kind of security measures that resembled those during the recent visit by Pope Benedict XVI, according to Lebanese and French security officials. Hollande told his host Suleiman that the Lebanese Army should beware of the dangers of supporting the resistance of Hezbollah, or the party's moves in Israel and in Lebanon. Hollande heard from Suleiman that he believes Hezbollah does not want to enter a domestic or foreign struggle. However, the French have a different analysis of the situation, since they believe the danger of things deteriorating remains present, and that it is natural for the Lebanese president, who is making huge efforts at dialogue, to have such a policy. The French were also able to talk to the Saudi leadership about Iranian intervention, not only in Lebanon but also in Africa and the Middle East. France under Hollande is determined to act to help Lebanon amid the significant regional dangers that surround it, and that are entering the local arena. Hollande is completely aware that the reasons for al-Hasan's assassination were connected to the arrest of former Minister Michel Samaha, the information that al-Hasan had about the investigation into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and the current situation on the ground in Syria. The French president is aware of how fragile the security situation is in Lebanon and is concerned about the safety of 900 French peacekeeping troops, even though he wants them to remain in south Lebanon. The task of protecting Lebanon from these dangers is complex and extremely critical, in light of the fact that three regimes – Syria, Iran and Israel, along with their proxies in Lebanon – have an interest in sabotaging things. The French president might have good intentions, and France might enjoy huge importance in the European Union, but the conclusion of the American presidential race will certainly have an impact on the situation because all foreign policy movement by the United States has been on hold during the campaign, although the White House recognizes that France has an important role to play in Lebanon. In the end, support for the Syrian opposition might become more active after the US elections, which would help bring about the end of the Syrian regime.
