The region is witnessing large scale political maneuvers featuring messages heading in multiple directions, in an attempt to establish a new balance of powers while awaiting the end of the overtime and the staging of the American presidential elections. Indeed, everyone is aware of the fact that during the next couple of months, the American administration will be a limping duck vis-à-vis any foreign initiatives, and this reality applies to the West, whether the Western states or NATO. This vacuum, in light of the escalation of the conflict over Syria, is pushing Iran to raise the ceiling of its political attack against the region, based on the fact that this is the perfect stage to establish this new balance of powers, as explained on several occasions by Guide Khamenei and his supporters. This theory stems from the fact that unipolarity is over, in parallel to the emergence of a stage of multipolarity which is allowing the rise of new regional powers with strategies and interests extending beyond the region's interests. One of these powers is Iran, which says that it possesses a great military power and that its strategic interests reach the Mediterranean Sea, going through the Gulf and Iraq and reaching Syria and Lebanon. At the same time, Iran has closely linked its nuclear file and negotiations with the West to these newly-announced strategic interests, especially the ones Tehran claims to enjoy in Syria and Lebanon. At this level, the file of the Syrian crisis – consequently the Lebanon file in which Iran has the upper hand on the military level thanks to Hezbollah – and the nuclear crisis appear to be two sides of the same coin in Iran's strategy. And when Iran, along with the Syrian regime, accuses the Gulf states, Turkey and the West of funding and arming the Syrian opposition, it believes that these states are affecting its strategic interests. The response to this attack lies behind the provocation of the Iranian nuclear file. In light of the Israeli commotion over the Iranian program and the escalation of the threats to militarily target the Iranian facilities, Tehran is linking this commotion to America's intentions and bases in the Gulf. Furthermore, it did not hesitate to stress it will retaliate against these bases and the Gulf states allied with America, after having threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz through which the Gulf oil is transported. Hence, the Gulf states became the target in any retaliation against an attack on Iran. And with the expansion of the field control of the Syrian opposition, the mounting strength of the Free Syrian Army and the inclination to form a transitional government, Tehran is gradually sensing that its strategy is flawed and that it should open another front that would constitute a negotiations card at the level of the formation of the new balance of powers. This is exactly what was stated by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during his interview with Al-Mayadeen channel two nights ago, as he pointed to the obstruction of the formation of the new balance of powers in which Iran has the upper hand, with the eruption of the Syrian crisis and the possible loss by what he dubbed “the resistance strategy" of an important position. But at the same time, he indicated that the compensation for the loss would be through the continuation of the resistance by fighting Israel, thus allowing Iran to respond to the Gulf and the American bases in it. This is the meaning of the “resistance and rejectionism" that have become a headline for the attempts to create a regional balance of powers benefitting Iran. Iran is consequently leading the Gulf toward the equation of the conflict over Syria, while this equation – in addition to the regional hegemony aspirations – is placing the West before a crisis related to the energy resources, at a time when this West is suffering economic slowness which has almost reached the level of stagnation. Moreover, it is trying to force it to offer concessions at the level of the nuclear file, whether at the level of the monitoring, the enrichment or the sanctions.
