In his latest speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah toned down his repeated declarations about the necessity for reforms in Syria, in favor of absolute support for the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad. Such toning down went beyond the provocation it arouses in Syrians, who are suffering around the clock from destruction and killing at the hands of this regime, to asserting the organic connection between the nature of the regime in Syria and the phenomenon of Hezbollah in Lebanon, even if the slogan of “resistance" is currently the cover being put forward to justify such a connection. It was striking for Nasrallah to stress the fact that he was wholly engrossed in major issues in the region, i.e. what concerns Iran and the fate of the Syrian regime, leaving small matters in Lebanon for his domestic rivals to amuse themselves with – the government cabinet, the labor unions, etc... And in such focus is revealed, perhaps for the first so clearly, the nature of the relationship that brings together Tehran, the regime in Damascus and Hezbollah. It was also striking for another Lebanese Shiite leader, namely Speaker of Parliament and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri, on the day following Nasrallah's speech, to express concern about the repercussions of division in Syria on Lebanon. Berri also called for strengthening the domestic scene in order to avoid negative repercussions – i.e. repercussions on the nature of relations between Lebanon's sectarian communities. Nasrallah spoke of Syria's role in arming “his party" and supporting it with missiles during the July War of 2006, but he did not point to the fact that the tremendous influence obtained by this party in Lebanon's political life and within the Shiite community would not have been as we know it had it not been for the exceptional ability for pressure exercised by the Syrian regime on Lebanon's politicians, forcing them to stand behind Hezbollah, ever since its inception at the hands of late President Hafez Al-Assad. It is believed that it is this role played by Syria in sponsoring Hezbollah that will be the real loss suffered by the party, not Syrian-made missiles. Hezbollah did not reverse the balance of government power in Lebanon, when it toppled Saad Hariri's government, with missiles, but rather with Syria's influence on Lebanese politicians who changed their stances under pressure from Damascus. Today, the Syrian regime is wavering, and is believed to no longer be able to rule a unified Syria. It has failed to put an end to the protest movement, despite the military arsenal and the missiles it possesses. This means that war arsenals, however advanced, cannot protect a tyrannical and oppressive regime. And that is a moral Hezbollah should pause to consider, being a Shiite formation. Indeed, despite its threats, warnings and black shirts, it will not be able to maintain its current methods after the regime in Damascus falls. Indeed, the fall of the Syrian regime will free many, in Lebanon and within the Shiite community in particular, from the burden of Syria's pressures, which will lead to a restructuring of alliances on different bases. Then, Hezbollah will not be able to maintain the current polarization around it, and its missiles will not be useful, even if coated with the conflict with Israel. The fall of the regime in Syria will entail great changes, not just in terms of the political method followed by the next Syrian regime towards Lebanon and its affairs, which will not suit Hezbollah's interests, but also at the level of the region – leading to the reemergence of questions surrounding the roles the American invasion of Iraq ended up playing and the spread of Iran's influence. And inasmuch as Hezbollah rushes to seriously engage as a Shiite party in Lebanon's political life, and to abandon the strategy connecting it to the Syrian regime, it will reduce the impact of the coming changes on the Shiite community in Lebanon. Continuing to make use of its excess power, on the other hand, will expose it to a difficult test after the collapse of the structure that currently stands in Damascus.
