The reformist candidate for the Iranian presidential elections Mir-Hossein Mousavi intends to announce soon the establishment of an opposition political front with the support of other candidates as well as reformist and moderate leaders. He bases his plan on the consideration that the necessary social and political conditions for establishing this front are available now because those who voted for the reformists represent a huge force and come mostly from the university and student elites. Meanwhile, Mihsen Rida'ii, the former leader of the Revolutionary Guards who also participated in the elections, warned that “if the current situation continues, then it will lead to an internal collapse” and that “the people and their rights must be respected” and stressed the importance of “introducing political reforms to ensure the survival of the Revolution”. Mousavi's intended step and Rida'ii's warning constitute, following the wave of protests in the street, a shift in the confrontation with the “Second Islamic Revolution” under Khamenei to a new phase. In this phase, the current opposition is trying to wrest recognition of its presence as an independent political force. It is true that it will be part of the general context of the regime, but it will exercise a clear supervisory role over the regime's inclinations and decisions through a political stance endorsed by popular and media circles. In the first republic, established and led by Khomeini until his death, the regime was based solely on his personality and opinions. The sole task of the team composed of the president and the government was to execute the instructions of the Supreme Leader of the revolution without discussion or hesitation. The war on Iraq during that period came as a pretext to liquidate and shun the opposition, and prohibit its members from asking any questions about the situation of the country and its future. After Khamenei rose from the second rank to the position of Supreme Leader, the situation changed slightly, and the president gained a very limited margin of freedom in which he could move, but the final decision was never in his hand. After foiling the experiment of the reformist president Mohammad Khatami, the Supreme Leader gave the new president Ahmadinejad, who is "closer to his way of thinking", wider powers in directing the economy and controlling some of the internal issues, while reserving in his hand the powers to decide on the main issues, especially foreign ones. In both the first and the second Republics, there was nothing that could be called an opposition. Oppression, imprisonment, and accusations of treason were the preferred methods of dealing with anyone who dared to question the correctness of the policies. Even Khatami himself barely survived the attempt to topple him by force and bring him to trial. His reign became a front for a ploy used by the Supreme Leader to deceive the world, ease the isolation and cover the armament and enrichment programs and the network of foreign interferences, especially after the end of the war with Iraq. The protests were dealt with through brutal force and armed militias were charged with terrorizing the street and subjugating it. The method that the opposition is utilizing to legitimize its supervisory role, end decades of monopoly over power, and cement its right to express remarks about policies and discuss and criticize them, means that a new formula will be established for the regime in Iran. This formula will shake its foundations based on the theory of the "Wilayat Al-Faqih" who has the final say. But this will not be easy to accept for those who are accustomed to have uncontested power. This will also mean that those who went down to the streets after the elections will have to do so again and again to impose this change. This also means that those who suppressed the protests might resort to more force to prevent this from happening. But the regime remains in need of a "main cause", most probably a foreign one, to cover its fight against the rise of the third Republic and to revive the slogan that says: "we are under attack, so do shut up, everyone".
