In recent days, Chinese and Japanese leaders have visited Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries, where they signed cooperation protocols in several fields, demonstrating how these importers of Iranian oil are looking for commercial partners that can more reliably meet their supply needs from Iran. The Islamic Republic was the second leading exporter to Asia in OPEC in 2011, with 1.3 million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz. Its exports to China stood at 466,000 barrels a day, followed by India (313,000 barrels a day) and Japan (221,000 barrels a day). Meanwhile, Iranian oil exports last year to Europe through the Mediterranean, via the Middle East port of Sidi Krir in Alexandria, reached 787,000 barrels a day. On Monday, the European Union will take a decision to ban the purchase of Iranian oil. Iran is subject to economic strangulation, even though China criticized the oil ban and is determined to continue purchasing Iranian oil; it is searching for additional supplies from safer suppliers, those that are easier to deal with in terms of financial transactions than its Iranian partner. The tightening of American financial sanctions on institutions that deal with Iran has a negative impact on Chinese companies dealing with the country. Likewise, there is huge anxiety in these countries that their firms with big commercial ties with the United States will prefer to intensify their commercial dealings with countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, especially in the petroleum sector. Relying on them more and more is in the interest of securing their basic supplies to their economies. The policy of the Iranian regime vis-à-vis its neighbors in the Gulf, in Bahrain, in Iraq, and its alliance with the Syrian regime and its continuing interference in Lebanese affairs, via its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, and its nuclear program, all render Iran a time-bomb that threatens the security of the entire Gulf. The Iranian people, meanwhile, are suffering from a poor economic situation, inflation and employment in a country that could better benefit from its oil and gas wealth, which is being wasted on destabilization and issuing threats. Iran warns that it will close the Strait of Hormuz, and it would be the biggest casualty of its closure, since more than half of its oil exports to Asia pass through this waterway. The US will not let this happen, because it is a strategic body of water for all of its allies in Asia. Iran is threatening the Gulf countries that can make up for this shortfall in Iranian oil. For decades, Saudi Arabia's policy in OPEC has been to guarantee the stability of world markets and prevent any interruption in supplies. This has made Riyadh maintain a surplus capacity of around 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day, to use in emergency situations. Saudi Arabia covered the amounts of Libyan oil that disappeared from the market with the stat of the uprising against Qaddafi. The kingdom, which has a productive capacity reaching 12.5 million barrels a day, is determined to prevent a growing global economic crisis if there is a shortfall in supplies, and if the price of oil reaches insane levels. The Iranian official in OPEC who warned Gulf countries against trying to compensate for Iranian oil knows full well that the Gulf countries' policies, and the fundamental policy of OPEC, is to see world markets supplied, and prevent any shortfall in oil that could have an impact on all OPEC countries, because the world will quickly look to develop alternative energy sources. The Iranian regime should think about the interest of its people in using the country's wealth to develop it, instead of following policies of threats and destabilization throughout the region. The European ban on Iranian oil is a huge punishment for this country, which recalls the sanctions on the regime of Saddam Hussein and the wasting of the wealth of Iraq, which continues to suffer from a dark history under the weight of that regime.
