I have said it before, and I say it again today: God rest Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan, who was a rare individual. I published an interview with Sheikh Zayed (in Al-Hayat in 1994) when I asked him about the policy of dual containment, or the policy of the United States to blockade both Iraq and Iran. The head of the United Arab Emirates repeated the words "America," "Iran" and "Israel" two or three times, before saying: "They are vile, and deserve each other." I did not publish this in the interview, so as not to embarrass Sheikh Zayed with the Americans or others, even though he and I shared the exact same opinion about these three countries at the time. Today, this is my same feeling about the policies of the US, the European Union and Iran during the latest round of the ongoing confrontation between Tehran and its rivals. The Obama administration has signed a law issued by Congress, putting new sanctions on Iran's Central Bank and threatening to prevent anyone from purchasing Iranian oil from conducting financial transactions with the US. The EU followed this by banning the import of oil from Iran. The result was that the Iranian Rial lost 30 percent of its value against the dollar over a period of days, rising to an exchange rate of 11,700 to the dollar (the Lebanese Pound is hard currency by comparison). It rose once again, and the latest reports indicate that it stands at about 16,200 to the dollar. The Rial lost 10 percent of its value after Iran's announcement that it would halt transactions in UAE Dirhams, but the exchange rate rose again after this was denied. In other words, in terms of its oil and its currency, Iran is like the Lebanese proverb that says, "Don't touch him, he's on the edge of a cliff already." However, the Iranian government is not searching for a way out politically from this situation, by protecting the people of Iran and the entire region. Instead, it is flailing at the wind, closing its eyes to the dangers surrounding it. Over two successive days last week, the Iranian military leader General Atallah Salehi, Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, the commander of the navy, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Closing the Strait is possible, since its narrowest part is not more than 33 kilometers wide; mines can be laid, along with air raids and the placing of obstacles to international navigation. The Iranian military is capable of this, but what would be the result? More than 20 percent of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil of Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia pass through this waterway, along with the oil of Iran itself (producing about 2.5 million barrels a day). The threat itself has kept oil prices above $100 a barrel, and experts say that closing the Strait will see the price jump immediately by 50 percent. Without having any expertise on this point, I say that the price could reach $200. Once again, what would be the result? Amid the ongoing and growing global financial crisis, I believe the US will respond by almost totally destroying Iran's military capability. This will include strikes within Iran itself, so that the goal becomes toppling the regime of the ayatollahs, not just keeping the strait open. The US will find a majority of the world supports it. They are all vile. The US helped Israel build a nuclear arsenal and long-range missiles; it is ready to wage war against Iran, which does not have a bomb, on behalf of Israel. The EU position resembles that of the US. Iran is threatening to close the strait, which transports its oil along with that of others, and give its enemies a "legal" excuse to strike; it is tilting at windmills while the average Iranian pays the price. Arab states, which do nothing about Israel's nuclear arsenal, oppose Iran's nuclear program. I call on all Arab countries that can to declare the beginning of a military nuclear program; I specifically call on Egypt and Saudi Arabia (I leave Iraq and Syria to commit hara-kiri) and Kuwait, the UAE and Algeria to do this. This unified position alone will make the US, the east and the west strive to rid the Middle East of weapons of mass destruction. Once again, God rest Sheikh Zayed in peace. [email protected]
