How many governments have been formed in Lebanon since 1943? Thirty? More or less? The actual figure is not important. What made me raise the question is that every government formed over the past years has been born by a C-section, although giving birth is supposed to be easy after the first difficult time, or the second, the third, the fourth, or the thirtieth. Saad al-Hariri was entrusted with forming a new government after the parliamentary majority lent him support in the consultations conducted by President Michel Sleiman. He met with the heads of parliamentary blocs and MPs according to the observed conventions, but I have only heard of problems, hindrances, stumbling blocks, and conditions, while each party is only concerned about its priorities, not the country's. May God help Saad who has experienced the baptism of fire twice in less than five years, the first time when his father Rafic al-Hariri was assassinated, and the second time when he was entrusted with forming the government. Some question the prime minister designate's relevant experience that enables him to head a cabinet which will face these contradictions in parliament, in the street, and in the foreign extension of Lebanon's domestic politics if the contradictory trends, or rather the conflicting parties, do not agree on its formation. The picture is not all gloomy or worrisome. What helps expect a peaceful solution to the disagreement among Lebanese parties is the improvement of Saudi-Syrian relations and the lack of Syrian interference in Lebanon's parliamentary elections. We have seen Prince Abdel Aziz bin Abdallah pay a visit to President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, during which Lebanon must have been one of the issues discussed. The Syrian president once told me that he considered Prince Abdel Aziz to be a personal and dear friend. Syria has been lauded by the Arabs for the role it played in the elections, or lack thereof, while it has reasons to keep playing a positive role. In addition, Saad Al-Hariri, at least on paper, enjoys a parliamentary majority that enables him to form a government and win the trust vote. And yet, I remain vigilant while I observe street tensions as was the case in the “squabble” between Nabih Berri's supporters and those of the March 14 camp. It reflects the strained relations between a parliamentary majority and the opposition, and while Hezbollah has not made overt demands yet for the obstructing or the guaranteeing one-third, other parties have claimed it, perhaps for themselves, or on behalf of Hezbollah. This one-third has nothing to do with democracy, let alone the Constitution. In fact, the winner enjoying the majority in a parliamentary system is supposed to rule without a veto exercised inside the government by the opposition like a sword over its head. The opposition loses its name as soon as it enters the government, as it cannot rule and exercise opposition at the same time. Had Hezbollah and its allies won the elections, I would have asked that they rule without an obstructing one-third for the March 14 camp, in case they say the opposite. But then, I understand their fear of being a mere number in the government and of seeing decisions and legislations jeopardize their interests. In such a case, taking to the street becomes the solution for those lacking political solutions. President Michel Sleiman remains the country's guarantee as he enjoys the confidence of the majority of the Lebanese as well as positive Arab and international relations. I have heard a suggestion to form a cabinet in which the majority would be given 15 seats and the minority 10 seats, with 5 seats left to the president, while each of the majority and the opposition nominates one candidate for these 5 seats. Thus, the eleventh minister will prevent the formation of the two-thirds and the majority in the hands of the President of the Republic. I find this suggestion acceptable although I don't know how serious it is. If I were to assume that a government has been formed under Saad al-Hariri's premiership, and then reconsidered his future relations as prime minister with Syria, I do not see a major insurmountable impediment as Saad al-Hariri had made a political, not legal, accusation against Syria of his father's assassination. The issue, along with the other assassinations, is before a tribunal with an international character. The son has declared he will accept the tribunal's verdict regarding his father's assassination. I will wait and see the atmosphere that will prevail in the event the Syrian president and Lebanon's prime minister meet in an Arab summit or conference. The two roles played by Saudi Arabia vis-à-vis Syria and by Syria vis-à-vis the March 8 camp are significant if the Lebanese government were to be formed and if its young premier were to achieve success. I find that each of Saudi Arabia and Syria has its own reasons, in addition to their joint reasons, for seeing stability prevail in Lebanon. Let us keep our fingers crossed. http://www.j-khazen.blogspot.com/
