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Change in Lebanon as Well
Published in AL HAYAT on 17 - 11 - 2011

The Lebanese interior minister's warning against his country's exposure on the security level due to political division and his prior, blunt and repeated voicing of fears over the return of the assassinations, emerged in parallel to the intersection of numerous pieces of information received by political and security sides. These pieces of information were carried by Lebanese media outlets regarding “Syrian sleeper cells” and dubious actions carried out by Palestinian organizations that are extremely loyal to Damascus while awaiting the go time.
Former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri forcibly left Lebanon, just like a number of other deputies and politicians, following the emergence of threats and warnings affecting their personal security.
The Lebanese have become accustomed to expecting the worst whenever Syria's relations with an Arab party grow tense, as the wave of assassinations and assassination attempts, which claimed the lives of Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and the other victims, followed Damascus' decision to allow its alliance with Tehran to supersede its Arab relations. This had led to the undermining of the Egyptian-Saudi-Syrian trio which – throughout many years – was able to regulate inter-Arab relations and prevent their collapse despite the disputes that were quite deep at times. Prior to that, the Lebanese experienced wars on their soil, whether directly or by proxy, against the Palestine Liberation Organization when it exited the “Syrian obedience.”
Today, Damascus' relations have deteriorated with all the Arabs who decided – as it is confirmed by the Arab League's resolutions – that the disregarding of the Syrian regime's behavior on the domestic and foreign arenas was no longer possible. This is why the Lebanese are holding their breath while waiting to see how Damascus will retaliate for its mounting isolation.
However, the increasing warnings against a security explosion based on the Syrian “traditions” mainly aim at exaggerating threats to avoid the repercussions of the imminent change in Syria over the political balances in Lebanon. This is why those promoting this explosion are blowing it out of proportion.
Although it is necessary to be cautious and to maintain security, this should not prevent the adoption - by the current opposition which represents the popular majority - of a new policy overcoming the intimidation and terrorization attempts. Moreover, it should not prevent this majority from holding the Syrian regime's friends in Lebanon accountable for what they did throughout forty years of tutelage and confirming that political and sectarian concord cannot remain hijacked by an armed party's monopolization of its sect, especially after it turned out that the latter has no regard for this concord when in power as it is seen today.
The signs of this new policy have actually started emerging in Al-Hariri's comments on Twitter, as he assured it was wrong for the angry demonstrations which erupted following his father's assassination not to proceed toward the Baabda Palace to topple Emile Lahoud and that in case he were to earn a parliamentary majority once again, Nabih Berri will not be reelected as speaker. He also considered that the quartet alliance secured following the 2005 elections was a mistake to be avoided in the future.
Some might say that the armed Hezbollah previously used force in Beirut, Mount Lebanon and the South to subdue those opposing its behavior and policy. However, this happened before the Arab Spring and the Lebanese will not be less courageous than their Syrian, Egyptian and Yemeni brothers if the party were to do it again.


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