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The Euro Is In Danger
Published in AL HAYAT on 05 - 10 - 2011

This week's drop in the Euro's value against the dollar (the world's leading currency) raises questions about the European Union's ability to maintain monetary unity, which had hitherto been one of the biggest successes of the EU. Senior European officials now believe that they should save the Euro, even though this is a complicated task, while some Europeans purport that European countries were late in helping Greece.
A number of European officials and economic and financial circles maintain that certain U.S. financial and economic parties want to start a crisis so that the Euro and the EU disappear, leaving no competitor to the dollar in absorbing the surpluses of China and Japan. However, political circles in the US think that dissolution of the Euro would lead to a deeper crisis, with the global economy experiencing a huge collapse.
Despite the firm intention by two leading states in Europe's economy, Germany and France, to salvage the situation in Greece, European countries are giving the impression that they want to help, albeit hesitantly. This was evident from the meeting of the European finance ministers in Luxembourg on Monday. No decision was taken to inject more funds to help Greece confront its huge debt. On July 21, the EU endorsed a rescue package for Greece, but three European Parliaments (The Netherlands, Slovakia and Malta) have yet to ratify the pact. French President Nicholas Sarkozy asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel to expedite ratification before the next European summit, on 17-18 October. Afterwards, a second plan to help Greece can be initiated, at a value of 160 billion Euros. However, the first plan continues to face delays, as Greece's creditors, including Germany, are unhappy with Athens‘s tardiness in beginning reform and privatization.
This has also delayed the ratification of a part of the upcoming aid package, worth 8 billion Euros. This is a difficult problem and there is anxiety about the crisis spreading to other European countries, which will put strong pressure on the already deteriorating value of the Euro.
However, a weak Euro is in the interest of European industrial countries, such as Germany, France and Italy, as this would make their exports more competitive relative to the US and the dollar. The main concern is that some European countries may leave the Eurozone, prompting the dissolution of European monetary unity, which began during the days of the late French President Francois Mitterrand, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, and Jacques Delors, the head of the European Commission.
If the EU proves incapable of saving Greece, this would spell its end, because European countries will have abandoned their commitments and joint projects. The importance of the role of France and Germany in the EU lies in the fact that both countries combined represent 50 percent of raw GNP for European countries. If the two agree on a given matter, the remainder of EU countries would have no choice but to get on board.
Germany's interest lies in helping Greece, because the EU is important to Germany, as the leading market for its exports, and because the German Constitution stipulates that the condition for the unification of Germany is that it must take place under the umbrella of Europe. If Germany begins to split from Europe, it will go back to frightening and alarming its neighbors about the possibility of undesired scenarios. Germany's psychological and economic interest lies in saving Europe and the Euro zone with France. The economic and financial crisis that Europe is currently experiencing certainly puts the Euro in danger, but the two influential countries in the EU will not allow it to fall apart, because this is not in their interests.


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