The Arab Spring tore down the wall of fear in more than one location; it triggered change in Tunisia and Egypt, and led to the ignition of fires in Libya, Yemen, and Syria. I have friends in these places who help me interpret events, thanks to their position and experience. My attention was caught yesterday by their decreased hopes in a calm change, and their fears of an imposed game of choosing between injustice and darkness. I was worried when they said that their countries are plunging into the abyss. How do you see the current situation in Yemen? - It is very bad. The president is wounded and is being treated outside the country. He needs artificial respiration at times, and yet he refuses to relinquish power or to delegate his prerogatives to his deputy. On the domestic level, the remnants of the regime are unable to put an end to the people's uprising in the streets. On the other hand, the protest movement is unable to uproot what remains of the regime in the military and security institutions and among part of the people. There are frictions, protests, and funerals, and a war on Al-Qaeda, which has entrenched itself in Zanzibar. To where is Yemen heading then? - I'm afraid it is heading towards the abyss, towards fragmentation into areas that live outside the state, and towards a terrible economic collapse. Is it such a dark picture? - Yes. Yemen is a completely special case. The young people who are demanding democracy live now under the protection of a tribal alliance. Some of the forces that participated in the uprising against Ali Abdullah Saleh are demanding a Taliban-like regime in Yemen. It is really tragic to confront the people with a deadly choice: either an unjust ruler or darkness. Unfortunately, I feel that Yemen is heading towards the abyss, and it will represent a great danger to itself and to the others. *** How do you see the situation in Yemen? - The assassination of Major General Abdul Fatah Younis is a pivotal event. Gaddafi received a gift he could never have dreamt of. We are a country of tribal nature, where weapons are widely available. I believe that we have entered, especially in Benghazi, a cycle of revenge and blood. Where is the situation headed? - Four decades of Gaddafi's rule prevented the birth of parties or the emergence of a civil society. Frankly speaking, we do not have any security valves. Gaddafi used to rest on our chests, and when his shadow became smaller, we find ourselves once again divided into sides and tribes. The only forces that can seize the uprising are Islamic forces, some of which dream of a model that is not very different from Kandahar. I do not rule out at all that Libya will spend a long time in fragmentation and clashes. I also do not rule out that a man similar to al-Zarqawi will appear in the coming phase and that external sides will secretly sympathize with Gaddafi once again. You seem to be extremely pessimistic? - It is because I know my country well. *** How do you see the situation in Syria? - After today's (yesterday's) events, we are faced with a scary new page. There is no more opportunity for talk about a solution or a settlement. The regime chose to go to the end in its security solution. It can be said that the wounds of the past were reopened. Syria is heading towards a stifling isolation and a terrible economic deterioration, and dissidents will perhaps choose armed conflict after the doors to change through democratic means were shut. This might be what is sought by the regime's falcons, as protests are more dangerous to them than explosions. How do you explain the military settlement attempt? - The regime is unable to offer the necessary compromises that can satisfy the protesters, as it has a tight military and security apparatus, and until now it cannot be said that it is isolated from the people. The regime considered that any serious compromise will lead to its fall sooner or later. Indeed, its structure does not allow it to be flexible. Any weakness in the regime will not necessarily lead to change, but perhaps to the establishment of a Yougoslavian-style situation in Syria. The regime is dealing with the protests by considering them an uprising of Islamists who want nothing less than to topple it. It might have wagered on striking a huge blow to the protesters to prevent them from exploiting the atmosphere of the holy month of Ramadan in view of expanding the protest movement and showing it isolated. The regime's game confronts the people with a worrying choice: either us or the rule of extremists, i.e. you either accept the injustice of the Baath regime or you surrender to the coming darkness. How do you see the future? - I see a river of blood and a plunge towards the abyss.
