No one was expecting a different response from Hezbollah to the indictment issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). Indeed, it waged a campaign to smear the credibility of the Investigation Commission into the Rafic Hariri assassination the moment it began its work, accusing it of being politicized and of being “American-Israeli”, before directing this campaign against the tribunal as soon as the government cabinet, formed by Fouad Siniora in 2005 with the participation of Hezbollah itself, began talking about its intention to ask the United Nations to establish it, in view of Lebanon's inability to do so. It then withdrew its ministers from the government in 2006 in protest of such a direction being taken, until it became clear after quite some time that the evidence pointed to the party itself. At the time, it was acting under the pretext of defending Syria, accused of issuing orders to carry out the assassination, while it has become clear today that it was also defending itself. There are those who say that it ignited a war with Israel that year with the main purpose of obstructing this direction and of creating new factors in Lebanon and in the region, without success. Similarly, no one was convinced later on with Hezbollah's repeated attempts and naïve televised reports accusing Israel of having carried out the Hariri assassination and all of the assassinations that followed, which included prominent political figures and journalists from the same political line. Indeed, the evidence that had surfaced over years of intensive as well as extensive investigation, one which is still ongoing, had excluded such a hypothesis, despite the fact that Israel's record of aggression and crimes does not at all help to clear it of suspicion. And in spite of the vast and skillful campaign of misinformation engaged in by the party in coordination with Syria, through the suspicious influx of false witnesses to the Investigation Commission, the latter remained committed to professional rules and standards, thwarting their efforts and revealing who was behind them, such that there was no longer any mention of those witnesses and the urgent calls to prosecute them stopped. But what comes next? Will Hezbollah be able to continue “ignoring” the STL, like it says it has so far, and asserting that the accusations leveled against it are part of that same “conspiracy” against the Resistance? Or will it decide, as it has done many times, to take Lebanon hostage in order to protect itself, as indicated by the statements of those close to it and allied with it, which focus on the importance of preserving civil peace and of making coexistence prevail over sectarian and confessional strife? Yet the confrontation this time is not just taking place between Hezbollah and those who oppose it on the domestic scene, but between it and the entire world, as represented by international justice and the Security Council. This explains Saad Hariri's call, as well as the statements made by Lebanese opposition leaders, for appeasement, asserting concern for civil peace and stability, and taking away the opportunity from those who wish to trade security for impunity, without backing down on demanding that Lebanon necessarily commit to UN Resolutions and cooperate with the STL. And if Damascus and Hezbollah's decision to speed up announcing the new government cabinet and hasten issuing its ministerial statement represents an attempt to anticipate the indictment being issued and to contain its repercussions, the thirty-day deadline to enforce the international arrest warrants, which will undoubtedly go by without the four Hezbollah suspects being “found”, will bring this wavering government into a decisive test with the international community, one that it might not have the strength to overcome, because Lebanon cannot turn into an isolated and besieged outlaw state subjected to sanctions like Libya and Sudan, and because the publication of the text of the indictment will reveal much of what is hidden and will make attempts to elude being held to account extremely difficult.
