The Yemeni President, who refused to sign the GCC initiative, and the opposition, which considered this initiative to be over, both know that the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and especially Saudi Arabia, will not abandon their efforts to put a stop to the security and political deterioration taking place in this country contiguous to them, and perhaps also to the excess indulged in by both sides in laying down conditions and counter-conditions in order to approve and sign the initiative. Circles close to President Ali Abdullah Saleh say that the initiative was set down on the basis of Qatari efforts to topple his regime, and accuse Doha of trying to exact revenge because of the failure of its efforts to turn the issue of the Houthis into a regional issue in which Iran would have a role to play. The President even introduced a personal element to the issue and blamed the Secretary-General of the GCC in public statement for not addressing him as a head of state. As for the opposition in the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), it considered the initiative to have been much too “lenient” on the President, as it does not stipulate his immediate resignation but in fact provides him with guarantees that he will not be held to account. And between these two stances, one must say that the balance of power on the ground still leans so far in favor of the regime, as evidenced by the fact that Ali Abdullah Saleh remains in control of most of the army, despite the defection of General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar. He also controls, through his son, the heavily-armed Republican Guard, and is still able to gather hundreds of thousands of his supporters in Sanaa every Friday, in addition to enjoying tribal support that should not be taken lightly. As for the fighting against Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar's men, it reflects a struggle within the tribal Hashid Confederation over its leadership, after the President was able during his long period of rule to move it into what are in effect his hands, by marginalizing the traditional leadership and taking his share of loyalties trough the distribution of funds, weapons and positions of influence. Saleh is so far benefiting from the reality that those who oppose him have nothing in common except for the goal of overthrowing him, because the opposition consists of an assortment of elements that usually do not mix: from the Leftists of the Socialist Party to the fundamentalists of the Congregation for Reform, and in between them various formations that disagree over almost everything. Moreover, it is noteworthy that protests demanding that the President leave have recently receded in Aden and the areas around it. Saleh had reached the conclusion that the opposition was afraid of elections, which could reveal its weaknesses, when he proposed that they be held before the end of the year, asserting that he would not run as candidate and would not bequeath power to any of his sons. And even if the opposition succeeds at removing the President and taking power, conflicts would erupt between its constituents that would be far worse than what is taking place now, and this could mean the establishment of an unstable state for a period of time that would not be short. And Yemenis have a long history of proving that loyalty to tribe, region and leader is much stronger that all political theories and regimes of rule. And whatever the truth of the pretexts which were and continue to be used to not implement the clauses of the GCC initiative, the situation in Yemen deserves every possible effort to prevent the security relapse from spreading and turning into chaos. And Riyadh, which maintains good relations with different Yemeni parties in power and in the opposition, cannot, by virtue of the factors of history and geography, stand by idly while civil war is being sparked, warning of a tremendous fire erupting, the flames of which would spread beyond the border, as took place in the war against the Houthis. This is why it will most likely not hesitate, in spite of taking great care to ensure the success of the work of the GCC institution and greatly supporting the efforts of its Secretary-General, to take the initiative of exerting direct efforts to activate the GCC initiative and to find a peaceful and gradual solution to the crisis.
