It is strange to see the annual conference of OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) convene in Cairo on 25 December, or Christmas, which has become an international holiday and not just one for Christians. Are Arab oil ministers, a number of whose countries are not members of OPEC, celebrating the rise in the per barrel price of oil to over $90? OAPEC is not concerned with discussing oil prices and the global level of production, since it groups Arab states such as Bahrain, Syria, Sudan and Oman, which are not members of OPEC. Every year, OAPEC discusses its budget and joint Arab projects; however, there are states that are concerned with the direction of oil prices, which are now more than $90 a barrel and are on their way up. Arab countries in OPEC and OAPEC like Algeria, Syria, Bahrain and Oman all welcome a continued oil price rise. However, one should pay attention to the fact that when oil prices reach $120 or $140 a barrel (as in the summer of 2008), they might hurt the future of oil. The current price rise is certainly due to snowstorms in Europe and a lack of supplies to melt ice on roads and airports. The rising demand for oil in both the West and China are factors that lead to a rise in prices, even though there is no shortfall in supplies. The majority of OPEC states have increased their production in line with this demand; however, they have not officially changed the production level that was agreed to in Oran by the organization. They are adjusting to the demand of their clients at a time when oil prices are improving; this has become a tradition for oil-exporting countries when oil prices are attractive to buyers. However, when prices are falling, they can move quickly to protect themselves by reducing production. Experts and oil firms expect that over the long term (five or six years), we will enter a new era of high oil and gas prices. This is because demand will rise and alternatives, no matter how quickly they are developed, will fail to serve as a true alternative to oil and gas over the long term, due to their low share of energy consumption world-wide. Countries with oil and gas will be lucky to enter this era, which will not see drop-offs in price levels. An expert once said at a conference: “Imagine if every Chinese citizen had a car – what would happen to gas and petroleum derivatives prices? Can we imagine that China, with its population (1.326 billion people) and annual demographic growth (11.84 million people), representing 22 percent of the population of the planet, will see every person with a car? What will happen to oil consumption?” Oil and gas will remain the two primary sources of global consumption, but while the rise of prices to $140 and $150 a barrel might please some countries, it will accelerate the development of energy alternatives in the long term. Oil sometimes serves regimes which use it for purposes that harm the region and the world, and not in the interest of their peoples, such as Iran and Libya. What is the situation of the Iranian people (75 million) today? How can the Iranian regime explain that it imports gas from Turkmenistan and lifts subsidies on gasoline and other items? Is Libya, which financed the bombing of airplanes and paid compensation to the victims, and caused the disappearance of Imam Musa Sadr, benefiting its people with its oil revenues? Oil and gas are two natural resources that should made use of in order to provide the populations of oil states with a dignified life. Unfortunately, oil countries exhibit a disparity in how they apply this principle, bearing in mind that some of them, like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait, have made good use of oil and gas by developing their infrastructure and improving living conditions.
