Iran is the common denominator for three regional and international events taking place this week: the GCC summit which will be held today in Abu Dhabi, the talks which will resume today and tomorrow in Geneva between the Islamic Republic and the five permanent Security Council States in addition to Germany, and the “Manama Dialogue Forum” held in the Bahraini capital and the positions announced by American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki. Moreover, Iran is the common and prevailing denominator in most of the secret diplomatic correspondence exposed by the Wikileaks website. This position occupied by Iran in confronting the American strategy in the region is enough for it to turn into the greatest challenge for its neighbors, i.e. the GCC countries. This is due to the fact that the latter countries are geographically located on the front lines of this Cold War, and will be the main arena if the choice were to tilt in favor of the military option. However, this pressing challenge is not the only source of threat facing the GCC states, considering that the old and renewed domestic and surrounding challenges are still present and are at the core of the talks of today's Gulf summit in Abu Dhabi. These challenges do not need further explanations and studies, and feature the development of the mechanisms and procedures to ensure various sources of revenue instead of relying on the oil and gas revenues solely. Also among the challenges is the flaw affecting the demographic structure in which the balance is tilting in favor of foreign labor, although the percentages may vary from one state to another. Also among the dangers are the threats posed by the “armies of pirates” in the Horn of Africa at the level of navigation in the oil passageways, especially from the Arab Sea to Bab-el-Mandeb, in addition to the turmoil in Somalia and the repercussions of the referendum in South Sudan. The arch of crises around these six states is thus completed if we were to add to them the open war between the Yemeni authorities and Al-Qaeda among other movements trying to undermine this country's stability and transform it into a base for the tampering with the security of its neighbors. In this context, the blocked horizon of the settlement process in the Middle East will enhance the conflict in which Iran has become a key element, so as not to say the one element overshadowing the Arab role, thus generating repercussions and threats affecting the GCC states. But Iran, its nuclear file and the confrontation it is causing with the international community, as well as the expansion of its influence in more than one Arab location, is constituting the main challenge for its Gulf neighbors. It is also the only obstacle facing the establishment of a regional system which is mainly sought by Washington in cooperation with the “Great” Middle East countries, from Afghanistan to North Africa. At this point, there is no need to recall the positions adopted by the Islamic Republic, which are raising the fears of its neighbors. In this context, its threats regarding the fact that Gulf countries will not be spared from any military confrontation with the United States and Israel are enough, just like these Iranian maneuvers that do not stop in the Gulf waters and are met with the enhancement of the American bases and the missiles systems which were recently deployed throughout the region by sea and by land. What is also enough is its rush to gain control over the Iraqi arena which left the northeastern doors of the Gulf wide open before treacherous winds! The responsibility of the major states – especially the United States – in the region and at the level of what is happening in it is undeniable, but Iran is also responsible. Therefore, what is primarily required to avoid a slip toward a fourth war is for the Islamic Republic to change its tone. During the days of President Mohammad Khatami, Iran's neighbors used to complain about the “duplicity” of the positions. Today, they are suffering from the tone of arrogance, superiority and dictations, such as the one used by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad two years ago during his address at the GCC summit in Doha. Tehran must firstly recognize there are joint interests between the international community – mainly the industrial countries – and the people of the region, at the level of the oil and gas sectors. Any dialogue that disregards this reality will not be successful, will not allow the region to break free from the international militarization and armament race, and will not distance the ambitions or remove the military bases and rockets shields. The agreement between the states of the region over the protection of the energy sources and passageways in order to keep this vital artery at the disposal of the industrial states with conditions acceptable to both sides, is the only guarantee for the distancing of the ghost of war and the consecration of a regional system in which each side knows its boundaries, obligations and responsibilities. In reality, what further complicates any possible dialogue between Iran and its rivals is that this dialogue will not be limited to the nuclear file and will tackle the role which will be played by Iran, the policy it will implement, and the extent of its respect of international norms. This role and policy will be related to the relations of parity with the neighbors, the discontinuation of the interference in their domestic affairs and the discontinuation of the opposition shown toward the efforts to secure a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians – in exchange for the non-interference in the affairs of the Islamic Republic, the lifting of the blockade and the economic sanctions imposed on it and the recognition of its role and position in any regional order. What further complicates any possible dialogue is Iran's wish to have the upper hand in any new order. However, there are obstacles and facts which cannot be circumvented, considering that the Islamic Republic is in contact with the GCC states at the level of more than one file and arena, from Lebanon to Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, the regional system in the Gulf does not only include the states of the region, although these states seemed to be trying to distance themselves from the Arab League with the establishment of an independent organization following Saddam's adventure in Kuwait. It is an inherent part of the Arab system from which one cannot exclude Egypt “the absentee,” that has always been concerned about the security of the Gulf throughout its modern and old history and during the conflict between the Pharaohs and the Persians over the Middle East. The elements of this system include Turkey, which is being pushed by the Gulf States to play roles equal to the Iranian one in the region, as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan. In reality, Islamabad acted in the past and is behaving publicly based on the fact that the security of the Arab Gulf states is equivalent to Pakistan's security, and that Iran is not allowed to acquire nuclear weapons because that would threaten the security of the latter states. Moreover, prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks, Pakistan and Afghanistan were playing a vital role by keeping the Islamic Republic busy in Central Asia - its backyard - instead of turning toward the Gulf. At this level, the role that can be played by the GCC and especially Saudi Arabia on the Pakistani and Afghan levels - which are two vital spaces for the Islamic Republic - are known to all. True, the dealings between Iran and the Gulf countries differ from one state to another, i.e. the six states do not have one political course vis-à-vis the eastern neighbor. But this discrepancy did not prevent the Gulf States from agreeing to cooperate with the United States and other powers at the level of defensive and military pacts and agreements, field measures and armament deals, in order to ensure the flow of oil and gas (20% of the international market goes through the Hormuz Strait). Such measures, in addition to the enhancement of the “Peninsula Shield Force,” the rockets system deployed by America in the Gulf and NATO's ratification of the deployment of the rockets shields in the North-Atlantic Alliance states to face any threats which French President Nicolas Sarkozy believed their greatest is Iran, ought to enhance the confidence of the GCC countries and their ability to face the Iranian influence. At the very least, they ought to enhance their positions and correct some of the flaws affecting the balance of power with their eastern neighbor, in order to contain the craving of the latter for power and dominance. Iran, just like the GCC states, knows that the United States cannot relinquish its military presence in the Gulf – regardless of the circumstances – and cannot allow any force, no matter how defiant it were to get, to compete with it over its location in this sea of oil and its passageways. Tehran and its neighbors remember that the American Navy handled the protection of the Kuwaiti oil carriers for the first time in 1987, to allow them to cross the Gulf during the Iraqi-Iranian war. It also provided Baghdad with all kinds of support, tilted the balance of power in its favor, and made Khomeini “drink the poison” and accept a ceasefire. Later on, during the Kuwait liberation war, Washington revealed its determination not to show tolerance toward any threat facing its interests in the Gulf. Iran and the GCC countries also know that what interests America are the protection of its troops who are deployed in the region and the confrontation of any possibilities or surprises, especially in light of the decision to complete the pullout from Iraq next year and the troubles it is facing in Afghanistan. Moreover, the fighting of the terrorist networks occupies an advanced position in the American strategy throughout the region, but especially in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen where American military interference is unannounced. Unless America and the GCC countries recognize that stability cannot be established in the Gulf without Iran and unless the Islamic Republic recognizes the limits of its role and the interests of the others in the region, it will be unable to find peaceful solutions to the numerous files which are the object of the confrontation with the United States. The people of the Gulf – with its eastern and western banks – must reach concord over a regional formula capable of establishing balance between the interests, ambitions and aspirations in the vital area of the world. Only then will we see the dissipation of the fears of the GCC populations over bloody confrontations or “deals” made at their expense.
