The Palestinian and Arab stance on peace negotiations with Israel has not been isolated from the mid-term elections in the United States, and the deadline that the Arabs have given President Barack Obama aimed at letting him focus on these difficult elections, without American Jewish pressure. Now that the elections have ended, the question is what will happen now? All Israeli sources indicate that Binyamin Netanyahu will announce a settlement freeze within the narrowest scope possible, or for three more months, possibly extending to a year. Every Israeli or Jewish American commentator is trying to promote the idea that the Likud leader has changed, and has been talking about “two states for two peoples,” which is unprecedented for him. I do not think that Netanyahu has changed at all. He remains an extremist and a charlatan; his stances, statements and leaks are aimed only at buying time. Just as he destroyed the peace process during the second term of Bill Clinton, in 1996 and 1999, he is destroying it during the term of Obama, whom Likudniks see as the least pro-Israeli president in the last 50 years. I heard that President Obama said, at the General Assembly of the United Nations, six weeks ago: when we return here next year, we might have an agreement that leads to a new member at the United Nations, the independent state of Palestine, a sovereign entity living in peace with Israel. The American president gets the highest marks for good intentions and a desire for a solution. However, I think he is unable to achieve his policies against the Israeli lobby (or lobbies). Congress, which I have always said is more Israeli than the Knesset, has become more Israeli after the mid-terms. Facing such Israeli extremism and American impotence, the negotiations will be useless; they are in fact useless, except that they are necessary so that the Palestinians are not blamed for their failure. President Mahmoud Abbas has a few options for when the negotiations fail once and for all. I have heard that he will ask the Obama administration for support in declaring a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, go to the United Nations Security Council and ask for this, or try to get a General Assembly resolution recognizing the state of Palestine. When I asked if Abbas would declare this state, his sources ruled this unlikely. They noted that the Palestine National Council declared a state in Algiers in 1988, when Farouq Qaddoumi was the foreign minister. Most states in the world supported this declaration, or more than those that recognize Israel. If the peace negotiations fail, as the Palestinian side expects, and if Abbas is unable to secure American or international recognition of a state, he will head home without offering any compromises, not even the slightest, as he says. The irony today is that the outside world supports President Abbas, although the majority of his people are against him, as they fear the results of the negotiations. The fear is justified, although the man has not compromised on anything whatsoever. There is a wager (a gentleman's wager, without money) between me and some readers; I say that he will not compromise, and I know him personally, while they do not. The tragedy in the whole thing is that a Palestinian state is possible. The World Bank said in its report that if the Palestinian Authority maintains its performance in building institutions and providing public services, then it can establish a state in the near future. The success of the government of Salam Fayyad in anchoring the foundations of a state reflects his background as an economist, before he became a politician. However, the success has come at a heavy price, which is unprecedented security cooperation with the occupation forces. When I noted this cooperation, I received an angry response: ask your friends in Hamas about it. The leaders of the PA say that Hamas is responsible for the security cooperation with Israel. They will not let Hamas turn things upside down against the PA in the West Bank, as it did in Gaza. One wants to avoid lightning striking twice, after all. I will try to remain neutral between Fatah and Hamas, or at least close to the two. I realize that Hamas has a hundred responses to the PA's accusations, and perhaps I will hear them soon, and relay them to readers. Or, the two sides will meet in Damascus, as we hear, and solve their problems. Meanwhile, Israel is in the hands of a right wing that is extremist, racist and pro-settler, and it is trying to gain further benefits and concessions from the White House in return for the continuation of the peace process so that this process is stopped, and nothing remains but what was taken from the Americans.
