The last crisis that Lebanon witnessed almost dispelled the progress made on the front of the Saudi-Syrian agreements regarding several regional issues, including Lebanon. This crisis suggested, in the least, that these agreements are subject to disruption, breaches, or setbacks. What was most important among the things that the crisis almost ruined, was one of the significant outcomes of these agreements, namely, the transformation in the position of the Prime Minister and leader of the Future Movement Mr. Saad Hariri, which he expressed on the sixth of September when he backtracked on the political accusation against Syria of having assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. This is in addition to his acknowledgment that false witnesses had misled and politicized the investigation, and the fact that he distinguished between the political accusations and the progress of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). The Saudi-Syrian reconciliation also encompasses the aim of promoting reconciliation between Syria and Lebanon, particularly between Damascus and Hariri, and elevating it into a higher level of cooperation in addressing the thorniest issues in the country. There is no doubt that the stance expressed by Hariri hence, is a bridge that would facilitate this aim, as it assists Syria in overcoming past differences. It also allows it to build on Hariri's re-evaluation of the relation with Syria (in order for the latter to play a role with its allies), since Hariri's new stance is the cornerstone of the efforts to tackle the possible repercussions of the STL's work on the Lebanese domestic situation. However, the positive reactions to Hariri's new position coming from Damascus's allies did not even last 48 hours, and they all soon turned into a raging political confrontation that put the Saudi-Syrian reconciliation to its first test since the start of rapprochement between the two countries. Meanwhile, communication between Damascus and Riyadh [did not cease], while there was insistence by Mr. Hariri and his team on considering the attack on him unrelated to Damascus (and hence, did not include the latter in the responses to the campaign against him). Also, President Bashar al-Assad called him the day before yesterday. In addition, there were Syrian efforts with the allies to calm the violent discourse and to keep it under the roof of the Saudi-Syrian-Lebanese summit on July 30. While all of these moves reemphasized this summit, this all did not eliminate the mystery surrounding many of the questions regarding the causes of what had happened. The reactions welcoming Hariri's statements immediately turned into ones questioning him, when a key ally of Damascus, i.e. Hezbollah, demanded him to translate his position into practical steps and to complete his reversals with other reversals. Hezbollah wants Hariri to express a position that goes beyond the issue of the false witnesses, to what resembles a repudiation of the STL, before the latter issues its indictments and before any verdict is read. In truth, all the slogans that are invoked by Hezbollah and its allies under the title of rejecting the indictment and the prosecution of false witnesses and their handlers are a cover for their main demand, namely, to abolish or cancel the STL by reversing the “Lebanese legitimacy” the latter has. This goes beyond the Saudi-Syrian reconciliation, which had never encompassed this demand before, but merely agreed on a Saudi effort to postpone the indictment (which Riyadh has indeed endeavoured for, without receiving affirmative responses from the countries that are influential in this regard). The campaign against Hariri under the title of the false witnesses and the indictment, suggested that the real demand behind them is adding the cancellation of the STL as a required addendum to the Saudi-Syrian agreement. This is at a time when Damascus informed some of those involved that Hariri cannot be asked to abandon the STL, and at a time when Saudi Arabia paid a part of its commitments in funding the latter, while the international prosecutor himself responded to the request to postpone the indictment by saying that he has not yet drafted it... It is not Hezbollah's goal to get into the fight of exposing false witnesses, since its campaign against Hariri started only a few days after the Council of Ministers tasked the Minister of Justice with preparing a file on false witnesses, and did not wait to follow up this issue. The only explanation for this is that this issue is a way to attack the STL, in order to add it as one of the items of the Saudi-Syrian agreement, at a time when this appears to be out of the question for Riyadh, while Damascus seems committed to not abandoning its allies, even if they are to “err” by breaching the roof of this agreement, or went far and tested the risks of undermining this agreement and the effect this may have on Lebanon's stability... Damascus is still in need of its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, and vice versa. Damascus also wants to keep its agreement with Riyadh. Hence, Lebanon will continue to be vulnerable to the polarity between the two equations, especially as Tehran considers the STL to be “Zionist”.
