The visit by Prime Minister Saad Hariri to Damascus on Sunday is a key moment to test the possibility of making progress on bilateral relations, after nearly seven months since Hariri's first visit, which was deemed historic, in view of the reconciliation that took place between him and Syrian President Bashar Assad. Although there are many provisions of this reconciliation that need to translate the period of Lebanese-Syrian accord into practical and tangible results, the expected visit will permit the implementation of another provision from the joint statement of 14 August 2009, during the first visit by Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to Damascus, following his election. This followed the implementation of the item on establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries. The second item involved “reviewing bilateral agreements,” which the visit will probably settle, after months of meetings and contacts, in addition to settling matters with regard to 18 new agreements. However, more important is that the visit is taking place as part of a new approach by Hariri in his relations with Damascus, since his first visit. It is based on the idea that improving relations cannot take place if there are conditions and counter-conditions set down, or by making Syria's implementation of what Lebanon wants a condition for improving relations. Hariri believes that a positive approach, with no tension, will allow Lebanon to arrive at what it wants. If the belief in this positive approach has been accepted positively by the Syrians up to now, especially since Hariri has been dealing patiently and firmly with his new approach, amid pressures and negative actions by some allies of Damascus in Lebanon, then he must view the regional and international context in which this visit takes place, which transcends the direct impact on the situation in Lebanon. Here, we should recall the relationship between the two countries takes place under a Saudi-Syrian understanding, which has developed recently into cooperation on pressing regional issues, most prominently Iraq. This ceiling involves preserving stability in Lebanon, as a matter of the utmost priority, and this involves Syrian efforts to cement this stability, solving pending issues between the two countries through constant communications, and allowing the Lebanese to deal with their domestic issues in the framework of a national unity Cabinet. However, the regional climate in which the visit is taking place goes further than this. The influential states that are concerned with stability in Lebanon, from the United States to Europe, and Russia, believe that Syria has, for this purpose, taken steps that are insufficient. Meanwhile, Damascus believes that the openness by these countries, since the beginning of the calm in Lebanon, has been insufficient. The big powers, including Russia, hope that the Syrian leadership will take a more independent stance on Iran, and Damascus is pursuing a flexible strategy, under a ceiling of continuing its alliance with Iran. This policy is based on differentiating between confronting dangers that the region faces, and normalizing Syrian-Arab relations, beginning with the reconciliation with Saudi Arabia. It also involves strengthening ties with Turkey, in parallel with the rising fear that President Assad expressed, of the collapse of Turkish-Israeli ties, and the negative impact on the possibility of resuming peace negotiations with Israel. This is because Assad considers Ankara the prime negotiation channel. Syria is also pursuing a policy of normalization with European countries and the US, which consider Lebanon one place to test the Syrian role when it comes to stability, in addition to Iraq and Palestine. Syria's close ally, Iran, recently used Lebanon as a mailbox to send messages, through the clashes that took place between Hezbollah and UNIFIL, as a response to sanctions on Iran, or for reasons connected to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, as it was said. There were also signals to Paris, through the freezing of the Franco-Lebanese security agreement, in view of Paris' hard-line stance on sanctions. The Syrian side has used the Lebanese “mailbox” to send different messages, based on the dual strategy of openness and retaining the alliance with Iran and Hezbollah. Syria has been keen, through its allies, especially Speaker Nabih Berri, to calm the problems with UNIFIL. This is in order to affirm its determination to avoid anything leading to an Israeli war with Lebanon. Syria has previously expressed its understanding of Lebanon's decision to abstain on the vote in the Security Council on sanctions against Iran, unlike Hezbollah, which criticized the government's failure to vote against sanctions. However, all of this does not mean that Damascus will do more to preserve stability, which sometimes is shaken, in its efforts to differentiate itself from Iran, because giving up many cards is being left until the appropriate time, and in return for measures that go beyond the current level of openness to Syria, the least of which being its recovery of the Golan Heights.
