Sulaimaniya (Iraqi Kurdistan)-The Iraqi politician asked me what the most important question I will ask him during the interview would be about. I answered: “The future of Iraq after the US withdrawal, as the future of this country concerns its citizens, the Arabs and the region”. He smiled and said: “That is a difficult question, because our future may be worse that our present and our past combined. If I were to speak in my own name, I would answer you with diplomatic expressions by virtue of my position and of my role. If you were to spare me from mentioning my name, I would be willing to call things by their names and I believe that would be much more useful for your readers”. Journalists usually do not like to omit the name of the speaker, but I was tempted by the deal and I accepted. He said: “The phase of US occupation of Iraq has effectively ended. The decision of the Barack Obama Administration to withdraw is entirely serious. The phase of exhausting US troops in Iraq has effectively stopped, and that for many reasons. The occupation is no longer the problem. We are heading towards something more dangerous, towards a great battle that could be given the title of the struggle over Iraq”. He added: “The struggle over Iraq takes place at two levels: an internal struggle over the future of the country between its main constituents, who are the Shiites, the Sunnis and the Kurds; and a heated regional struggle over Iraq between neighboring countries and countries that are prominent in the region, without forgetting international interest in Iraq due to its wealth and position”. He said: “What makes the crisis regarding the formation of the government cabinet dangerous is the fact that it is not separate from the struggle over Iraq, which has started and is likely to head towards more heated phases. Shiite-Sunni relations in Iraq are truly very bad. Our conflicts have deep historic roots. Your conflicts in Lebanon are not as deep and harsh”. He continued: “It is out of the question for the Shiites to concede what they consider to be justice and victory, i.e. the formula that arose in the wake of the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. They have fears from regional and international roles leading to readjusting the formula and reducing the size of their victory. It is out of the questions for Sunnis to accept such a formula and their protest is clear, whether through military action or the elections. After the fall of the regime, forces on both sides engaged in shameful practices (expulsions, bombings and assassinations), and it is not true that all such acts were committed by those who came from abroad. This is not Europe for us to resolve conflicts through ballot boxes. This is Iraq, and its situation is highly complex. What I fear is the race to slice off the biggest part of the cake, especially after the withdrawal of the Americans. And divorce can only be bloody”. He considered that the internal struggle over Iraq would be accompanied by intense regional struggle over it, which would add fuel to an already raging fire. He said: “One could say that the US player has somewhat withdrawn with Obama having entered the internal game. The US has distanced itself and its weight and impact has receded. One could also say that Iran is the primary external player on the Iraqi scene. Iran behaves on the basis of its conviction that the battle for the future of the region is taking place on Iraq's soil: the new balances of power, the sizes of roles, the features of the region and the presence of the major powers in its interests and in its decision-making. Turkey has realized the importance of the battle and has entered the field of competition through investment, politics, diplomacy and mediations. Neighboring Syria could have an influence. It relations to Iran and Turkey could help it, as they could on the other hand restrict it”. He noted: “The Arabs were slow to wash their hands of Saddam Hussein's regime and were slow to return to Iraq after its fall. They will be able to exercise more influence if they succeed at coordinating with Turkey to define a regional umbrella that would contain Iran's role on Iraqi soil”. The politician repeated many times the phrase “it is a major battle”, noting that it was much more important and much more dangerous than “the struggle over Lebanon” which we had witnessed in past years. He pointed to the fact that Iraq plans to produce six million barrels of oil a day in the coming years. He said: “If Iran succeeds at making it follow its policy, this would mean a great deal in terms of oil and politics, as well as in terms of the region's stability. Some Iraqis will resist any kind of Iranian tutelage over Iraq, and some Iraqis will resist any attempt to distance Iraq from Iran. The fear is for the struggle over Iraq to end with the loss of Iraq”.
