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A Cold Political Summer In Egypt
Published in AL HAYAT on 17 - 05 - 2010

Despite the warm weather in Egypt, the temperature of the political conflict is heading in another direction as it has become clear how low it has fallen. A few weeks ago, the conflict had reached its peak against the backdrop of the activities of Dr. Mohamed el-Baradei and those who have rallied around him, the hit and run operations between the government and the Muslim Brotherhood group, the heat prevailing among the opposition parties, four of which, i.e. Al-Wafd, the Democratic Front, the Leftist Unionist Party and the Nasserist Party, have formed an alliance to confront the ruling National Party, in addition of course to the scenes carried by satellite channels on a daily basis and conveying the disputes erupting inside the People's Assembly between the parliament speakers of the ruling party and those belonging to the opposition.
The situation have calmed down as the summer temperatures went up and the conflict became contained in air-conditioned rooms or studios, through television shows reproducing the same events, but without the heat or anything worthy of attention. Only those staging sit-ins on the steps of the People's Assembly and the Cabinet have remained the same, spending their nights awaiting the cameras of a television show to visit them, in order to dust away their boredom and their long wait, then shout or raise banners demanding their rights and a decent living, knowing that their demands do not have anything to do with politics or politicians. What is noticeable in this context is that these demonstrators do not represent a specific occupation, since some of them work in the public sector, i.e. governmental companies facing financial problems, or in governmental companies that were sold to investors who sought their ousting or the reduction of their salaries, while others work in private factories or companies whose owners are refusing to give them work contracts or pay them the incentives and bonuses stipulated by the law. The latter have become a valuable catch for TV shows and newspapers, which are using them to fill the vacuum caused by the summer heat. What is noteworthy in this context is that no one is able to feel the impact of the Shura Council elections, which will be held at the beginning of next month and are supposed to be filling the governorates, where these elections will be held, with numerous events. In reality however, the National Party is competing with itself, and except for fifteen candidates affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, the other parties chose to either boycott the elections or participate in them in a symbolic way, thus focusing their efforts on the preparations for the People's Assembly elections that are expected to be held before the end of the current year. Therefore, the Egyptians will be spending a quiet political summer. However, as the heat drops at the end of the season, the political conflict will start resurfacing again.
This seems to go in line with the theory of crackling pots, since whenever the opposition parties grow more active, they are followed by the Muslim Brotherhood and whenever el-Baradei and his entourage increase their activities, the voices of the other protest movements rise to the point where all start partaking in one tune in the face of the National Party that is currently competing with itself in the Shura elections. Nevertheless, this will not continue to be the case on the political arena in the future, as the commotion generated by the opposition before and during the People's Assembly elections will raise the temperature of the political conflict before next year's presidential elections, thus leading the temperature to reach its peak, even if by then, the Egyptians will be suffering a cold winter.


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